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Friday, November 3, 2017

Clinical cognition in the digital age


From the New England Journal of Medicine (open access essay):
Lost in Thought — The Limits of the Human Mind and the Future of Medicine
Ziad Obermeyer, M.D., and Thomas H. Lee, M.D.
In the good old days, clinicians thought in groups; “rounding,” whether on the wards or in the radiology reading room, was a chance for colleagues to work together on problems too difficult for any single mind to solve.

Today, thinking looks very different: we do it alone, bathed in the blue light of computer screens.

Our knee-jerk reaction is to blame the computer, but the roots of this shift run far deeper. Medical thinking has become vastly more complex, mirroring changes in our patients, our health care system, and medical science. The complexity of medicine now exceeds the capacity of the human mind.

Computers, far from being the problem, are the solution. But using them to manage the complexity of 21st-century medicine will require fundamental changes in the way we think about thinking and in the structure of medical education and research.

It’s ironic that just when clinicians feel that there’s no time in their daily routines for thinking, the need for deep thinking is more urgent than ever. Medical knowledge is expanding rapidly, with a widening array of therapies and diagnostics fueled by advances in immunology, genetics, and systems biology. Patients are older, with more coexisting illnesses and more medications. They see more specialists and undergo more diagnostic testing, which leads to exponential accumulation of electronic health record (EHR) data. Every patient is now a “big data” challenge, with vast amounts of information on past trajectories and current states.

All this information strains our collective ability to think. Medical decision making has become maddeningly complex. Patients and clinicians want simple answers, but we know little about whom to refer for BRCA testing or whom to treat with PCSK9 inhibitors. Common processes that were once straightforward — ruling out pulmonary embolism or managing new atrial fibrillation — now require numerous decisions...
"Computers, far from being the problem, are the solution. But using them to manage the complexity of 21st-century medicine will require fundamental changes in the way we think about thinking and in the structure of medical education and research."

'eh?

I am reminded of a prior contrarian post "Are structured data the enemy of health care quality?"

More recently, I've reported on the latest (excessively?) exuberant rah-rah over stuff like AI, NLP, and Robotics. See also here.

More Obermeyer and Lee from NEJM:
The first step toward a solution is acknowledging the profound mismatch between the human mind’s abilities and medicine’s complexity. Long ago, we realized that our inborn sensorium was inadequate for scrutinizing the body’s inner workings — hence, we developed microscopes, stethoscopes, electrocardiograms, and radiographs. Will our inborn cognition alone solve the mysteries of health and disease in a new century? The state of our health care system offers little reason for optimism. 
But there is hope. The same computers that today torment us with never-ending checkboxes and forms will tomorrow be able to process and synthesize medical data in ways we could never do ourselves. Already, there are indications that data science can help us with critical problems...
I found it quite interesting that Lincoln Weed, JD, co-author of the excellent "Medicine in Denial" (now available free in searchable PDF format) was first to comment under the essay.
LINCOLN WEED
Underhill VT
October 04, 2017

Medicine has long been operating in denial of complexity and its solutions
The authors correctly observe, "Algorithms that learn from human decisions will also learn human mistakes." But the authors understate the problem. "The complexity of medicine," they argue, "NOW exceeds the capacity of the human mind" (emphasis added). This is a bit like saying, "The demands of transportation NOW exceed the capacity of horse-powered vehicles." In reality, the complexity of medicine overtook the human mind many decades ago.  Moreover, conventional software engineering demonstrated the potential for tools to cope with complexity and transform medicine long before algorithms driven by machine learning emerged. Medical education, licensure, and practice have been operating in denial of this reality.
 
Interested readers are referred to Weed LL, Physicians of the Future, New Eng. J. Med. 1981;304:903-907; Weed LL, Weed L, Medicine in Denial, CreateSpace, 2011 (a book available in full text at www.world3medicine.org); and a recent guest blog post, https://nlmdirector.nlm.nih.gov/2017/09/05/larry-weeds-legacy-and-clinical-decision-support/. Disclosure: I am a son of and co-author with the late Dr. Larry Weed, author of the article and lead author of the book just cited.
I could not recommend the Weeds' book more highly. I've cited it multiple times, e.g., "Down in the Weeds'," "Back down in the Weeds'," and "Back down in the Weeds': A Complex Systems Science Approach to Healthcare Costs and Quality."

Back to more Obermeyer and Lee:
...Machine learning has already spurred innovation in fields ranging from astrophysics to ecology. In these disciplines, the expert advice of computer scientists is sought when cutting-edge algorithms are needed for thorny problems, but experts in the field — astrophysicists or ecologists — set the research agenda and lead the day-to-day business of applying machine learning to relevant data.
In medicine, by contrast, clinical records are considered treasure troves of data for researchers from nonclinical disciplines. Physicians are not needed to enroll patients — so they’re consulted only occasionally, perhaps to suggest an interesting outcome to predict. They are far from the intellectual center of the work and rarely engage meaningfully in thinking about how algorithms are developed or what would happen if they were applied clinically.
But ignoring clinical thinking is dangerous. Imagine a highly accurate algorithm that uses EHR data to predict which emergency department patients are at high risk for stroke. It would learn to diagnose stroke by churning through large sets of routinely collected data. Critically, all these data are the product of human decisions: a patient’s decision to seek care, a doctor’s decision to order a test, a diagnostician’s decision to call the condition a stroke. Thus, rather than predicting the biologic phenomenon of cerebral ischemia, the algorithm would predict the chain of human decisions leading to the coding of stroke.
Algorithms that learn from human decisions will also learn human mistakes, such as overtesting and overdiagnosis, failing to notice people who lack access to care, undertesting those who cannot pay, and mirroring race or gender biases. Ignoring these facts will result in automating and even magnifying problems in our current health system. Noticing and undoing these problems requires a deep familiarity with clinical decisions and the data they produce — a reality that highlights the importance of viewing algorithms as thinking partners, rather than replacements, for doctors.
Ultimately, machine learning in medicine will be a team sport, like medicine itself. But the team will need some new players: clinicians trained in statistics and computer science, who can contribute meaningfully to algorithm development and evaluation. Today’s medical education system is ill prepared to meet these needs. Undergraduate premedical requirements are absurdly outdated. Medical education does little to train doctors in the data science, statistics, or behavioral science required to develop, evaluate, and apply algorithms in clinical practice.
The integration of data science and medicine is not as far away as it may seem: cell biology and genetics, once also foreign to medicine, are now at the core of medical research, and medical education has made all doctors into informed consumers of these fields. Similar efforts in data science are urgently needed. If we lay the groundwork today, 21st-century clinicians can have the tools they need to process data, make decisions, and master the complexity of 21st-century patients.
Big "AI/IA" takeaway for me:
"Algorithms that learn from human decisions will also learn human mistakes, such as overtesting and overdiagnosis, failing to notice people who lack access to care, undertesting those who cannot pay, and mirroring race or gender biases. Ignoring these facts will result in automating and even magnifying problems in our current health system. Noticing and undoing these problems requires a deep familiarity with clinical decisions and the data they produce — a reality that highlights the importance of viewing algorithms as thinking partners, rather than replacements, for doctors."
Indeed. That is a huge and perhaps underappreciated concern in light of the prevalence of errors and omissions in many, many sources of data.


UPDATE

An important new "AI Now" report is out. See "Why AI is Still Waiting for its Ethics Transplant." Much more on this shortly.
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Below: audio interview with Dr. Obermeyer.
In the aggregate foregoing vein, you might also like my prior riffs on "The Art of Medicine." In addition, see my "Philosophia sana in ars medica sana."

CODA

Save the date.

Link

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More to come...

Friday, February 3, 2012

Back down in the Weeds'


"...In the current non-system, physicians bear impossible burdens of performance, other practitioners are barred from sharing those burdens, patients do not participate effectively in their own care, the U.S. spends $2.5 trillion annually without clinical accounting standards, third parties manipulate the situation for their own advantage, and none of the stakeholders are accountable for their own behaviors..."


PREFATORY OBSERVATIONS


Props to The Health Care Blog, specifically Nimble Medicine by Dave Chase...



Indeed. The latter graphic above goes to a a point I wrestle with all of the time. I hear related pushback routinely out in the field, sometimes angrily so.

Apopros of the broader point, consider:

...[F]alse conclusions ... are now not only causing major economic waste, but also creating unnecessary dangers to public health and safety. Society has only finite resources to deal with such problems, so any effort expended on imaginary dangers means that real dangers are going unattended. Even worse, the error is incorrectible by the currently most used data analysis procedures; a false premise built into a model which is never questioned, cannot be removed by any amount of new data. Use of models which correctly represent the prior information that scientists have about the mechanism at work can prevent such folly in the future.

But such considerations are not the only reasons why prior information is essential in inference; the progress of science itself is at stake. To see this, note a corollary to the last paragraph; that new data that we insist on analyzing in terms of old ideas (that is, old models which are not questioned) cannot lead us out of the old ideas. However many data we record and analyze, we may just keep repeating the same old errors, and missing the same crucially important things that the experiment was competent to find. That is what ignoring prior information can do to us; no amount of analyzing coin tossing data by a stochastic model could have led us to discovery of Newtonian mechanics, which alone determines those data.

But old data, when seen in the light of new ideas, can give us an entirely new insight into a phenomenon; we have an impressive recent example of this in the Bayesian spectrum analysis of nuclear magnetic resonance data, which enables us to make accurate quantitative determinations of phenomena which were not accessible to observation at all with the previously used data analysis by Fourier transforms. When a data set is mutilated (or, to use the common euphemism, ‘filtered’) by processing according to false assumptions, important information in it may be destroyed irreversibly...
["Probability Theory:The Logic of Science," pg xvi, pdf]
I ran across the foregoing link while reading "What is Science?" over at ScienceBasedMedicine.org (SBM), one of my regular online stops. Now, SBM is largely focused on relentless pseudoscience debunkery on the clinical side of things, but after reading the the Dave Chase post, the Weeds' book, and the works of people like the amazingly astute Health Care Futurist Joe Flower and medical economist J.D. Kleinke, I am reminded of yet another pertinent resource, comprised of the works of Messrs Toussaint and Gerard, in On The Mend, a book I cited early on in the life of this blog. e.g.,
Every time you walk into a hospital or clinic in the United States, you take your life in your hands. Whatever your condition, you will probably be cared for by people who are overworked and hobbled by wasteful systems.With 15 million incidents of medical harm in the United States every year, such as drug errors, wrong-site surgeries and infection, there is a good chance you will be hurt in this interaction. Medical professionals like us are horrified every time we cause harm, but even the best intentions do not change facts.


Meanwhile, government policy makers argue about the healthcare crisis and focus almost exclusively on money—who pays, how much, and from what budget. From the sidelines, we have been repeatedly struck by how little the players seem to know about how healthcare is actually provided. It is as if they are talking about a black box they have never cracked open to investigate, so they can only talk about the environment surrounding the box—about changing payment systems to providers, insurance coverage for patients and reporting requirements for healthcare organizations. These prescriptions are based on one abstract theory or another with no real insight into why healthcare costs so much. With few exceptions, the debaters assume that healthcare costs are fixed, that America’s proud history of medical care and innovation comes with a staggering bill.


We know different.


Governments can tweak payment systems and probably get some temporary fiscal relief. But until we focus reform efforts on where most of the money goes, which is healthcare delivery, we will remain stuck in a revolving door of near disaster and narrow escapes.To get to the point where all people have access to high-quality healthcare, affordably, we must focus our attention on how the healthcare delivery system determines costs and quality. Then we need to change that delivery model entirely.


In fact, hospitals, physicians, and nurses—all of healthcare—must change. First, we must emphasize the science of medicine over the art. This means turning to evidence-based medicine, which is already underway in some sectors. But we are also talking about evidence-based delivery, work that has barely begun...


...Throughout this book, we are speaking directly to the people involved with delivering healthcare.We do not mean to suggest, however, that the external environment of healthcare—payment systems, insurance coverage, and regulations—does not need to be overhauled. It is a badly broken system requiring major surgery. But we are convinced that the healthcare debate needs to start from a deep understanding of how healthcare value is actually delivered.


This is an understanding we all need—policy makers and patients, as well as medical professionals.We all have a role to play in reforming healthcare. Caregivers need to rethink their priorities and remake their working environments. Lawmakers need to rewrite the rules to ensure that value is rewarded instead of waste. And patients must understand how healthcare works in order to demand truly effective change.


Only when we all have clear insight into the work going on inside the black box can useful reforms be crafted. [Toussaint and Gerard, "On The Mend," pp. 1-4]


"First, we must emphasize the science of medicine over the art. This means turning to evidence-based medicine, which is already underway in some sectors. But we are also talking about evidence-based delivery, work that has barely begun."
I could not agree more. Without significant and continuing improvement on the care delivery process side of things (everything associated with workflow, both physical and informational), clinical improvements will be immeasurably more difficult to achieve.

Just getting started here. Much to triangulate. But first, a bit of "Usability" comic relief. I saw this TV ad this morning on CNN:

 
"There's even one that Glows In The Dark, so you can work late at night without disturbing others!"
OK, where's my Metamucil? Where the hell are my glasses? And, GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

Click the graphic. These would be perfect for Medicare patient waiting room kiosks, no?
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A BOBBYG FIVE MINUTE PHOTOSHOP

 More to come...


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FULLY BACK DOWN IN THE WEEDS'

A culture of denial subverts the health care system from its foundation. The foundation—the basis for deciding what care each patient individually needs—is connecting patient data to medical knowledge. That foundation, and the processes of care resting upon it, are built by the fallible minds of physicians. A new, secure foundation requires two elements external to the mind: electronic information tools and standards of care for managing clinical information.


Electronic information tools are now widely discussed, but the tools depend on standards of care that are still widely ignored. The necessary standards for managing clinical information are analogous to accounting standards for managing financial information. If businesses were permitted to operate without accounting standards, the entire economy would be crippled. That is the condition in which the $2 1⁄2 trillion U.S. health care system finds itself—crippled by lack of standards of care for managing clinical information. The system persists in a state of denial about the disorder that our own minds create, and that the missing standards of care would expose.


This pervasive disorder begins at the system’s foundation. Contrary to what the public is asked to believe, physicians are not educated to connect patient data with medical knowledge safely and effectively. Rather than building that secure foundation for decisions, physicians are educated to do the opposite—to rely on personal knowledge and judgment—in denial of the need for external standards and tools. Medical decision making thus lacks the order, transparency and power that enforcing external standards and tools would bring about. [pp 1-2]

I know that a lot of interests don't want to hear it, but the Weeds' are right.

I'm gonna end up citing the entire book. Just buy a copy, OK? Click the "Medicine in Denial" link on the right (again, I'm not shilling it; l I get nothing -- beyond the satisfaction of having alluded to something IMO substantive).
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GOOD POST ON THIS TOPIC FROM THE HEALTH CARE BLOG

 
Is the Center For Innovation Innovating Too Fast?
By ROBERT A. BERENSON AND NICOLE CAFARELLA

...Advocates of market-based solutions to cost and quality problems argue that innovation springs from competitive forces...
My response? "Perhaps to a good degree. But, markets properly exist to serve the net advancement of humanity in the aggregate, not the other way around..."

Too fast? Too slow? You just can't win. I'm a month shy of two years into the REC initiative, and the sideline critics are coming out blazing from every IP address, angrily dissing us and the feds we because haven't yet magically created frictionless HIT/HIE and improved outcomes and reduced costs by75%.

Yeah, I know, I have skin in this game, our company having just submitted for a CMMI grant (see my prior post on January 8th, "Shovel Ready"). Nonetheless, no one can ever accuse me of being an uncritical cheerleader of all of this stuff.

Neither have I any use for "Perfectionism Fallacy" carping.
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FEB 8th SIDE NOTE

So, HIMSS 2012 is here in Vegas this year. I really wanted to go, but I think only a small contingent of HealthInsight management folks above me (three from UT, IIRC) were approved for paid registration.

So, on a bit of a lark, I applied for a comp Media Pass, thinking 'yeah, your piddly little nights/weekends non-commercial blog. Right, dream on, Mr. HIT Journalist...'

They approved me in all of about a minute.

 I'm fairly decent with a camera. So. I will have mine in tow, and will dutifully report on what I find, both pictorially and via write-up. I will be a REC champion during the proceedings.
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BREAKING:

The goal of EMRs is to wrestle control of healthcare away from the doctor-patient relationship into the hands of third parties who can then implement their policies by simply removing a button or an option in the EMR. If you can’t select a particular treatment option, for all intents and purposes the option doesn’t exist or the red tape to choose it is so painful that there is little incentive to “fight the system.”


Really? Entire article here. The comments are particularly interesting. See also the source post I ran across amid my daily HIT topic Google searches that led me to it.

OK, related to the foregoing, how about this concern?
Healthcare IT Expert Exposes Hidden Risks of Lawsuits Due to Electronic Health Record

"...EHRs unquestionably have the potential to improve patient safety and the quality of care delivered, but what few people realize is that using an EHR exposes physicians to an Orwellian level of analysis of every single act while doing their job," said [Dr Sam] Bierstock, who has advocated and pioneered the use and benefits of EHRs for more than 30 years." EHRs, however, can also be audited to examine how long it took them to act after an abnormal lab result came in, if the doctor checked on on-line references before making a clinical decision, what was said in every email and how long the doctor took to respond, and even how long the doctor looked at a screen or scrolled down to read an entire document. Physicians are exposing themselves to an unacceptable level of scrutiny and analysis of their use of computers that may serve to encourage malpractice suits. Meaningful tort reform is essential to getting the maximal benefit from these wonderful systems..."

"...Quite simply, physicians may be in a situation that leaves them vulnerable to litigation and threatens loss of their professional standing and personal assets – all because an external evaluator may not think the physician lived up to arguable standards in the digital age," said Bierstock. "Overall, EHRs are the litigator's proverbial golden goose. They are to malpractice attorneys what the electron microscope is to microbiology..."

The EHR/HIE audit logs as grist for a new generation of adversarial "Utilization Review," 'eh?

I've posted on some of the potential liability issues pertaining to HIT before. See First, do no "Hold Harmless."

FEB 10TH UPDATE:
JOE FLOWER, "Healthcare Beyond Reform"





Can't wait to buy and read the book. All of his writings are excellent. I quote him frequently. I call him "Sensei."

A couple of observations on on this trailer: Joe looks great, the lighting is great, but, whoa, back the audio down, it's clipping (I'd have put a compressor/limiter on the mic channel during the takes), and put some segues in to attenuate those jerky jump-cuts (e.g., maybe a quick thematic cross-dissolve "lens shutter" image, replete with concomitant "shutter-snap" sfx). The jumps (most w/changing L/R framing on Joe and often rushed end/begin edits) make it distractingly obvious that he's reading a prompter, and that these pieces were stitched together.

Whatever. I'm maybe the only one who will notice these things.
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More to come...

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Back down in the Weeds': A Complex Systems Science Approach to Healthcare Costs and Quality

Abstract
There is a mounting crisis in delivering affordable healthcare in the US. For decades, key decision makers in the public and private sectors have considered cost-effectiveness in healthcare a top priority. Their actions have focused on putting a limit on fees, services, or care options. However, they have met with limited success as costs have increased rapidly while the quality isn’t commensurate with the high costs. A new approach is needed. Here we provide eight scientifically-based steps for improving the healthcare system. The core of the approach is promoting the best use of resources by matching the people and organization to the tasks they are good at, and providing the right incentive structure. Harnessing costs need not mean sacrificing quality. Quality service and low costs can be achieved by making sure the right people and the right organizations deliver services. As an example, the frequent use of emergency rooms for non-emergency care demonstrates the waste of resources of highly capable individuals and facilities resulting in high costs and ineffective care. Neither free markets nor managed care guarantees the best use of resources. A different oversight system is needed to promote the right incentives. Unlike managed care, effective oversight must not interfere with the performance of care. Otherwise, cost control only makes care more cumbersome. The eight steps we propose are designed to dramatically improve the effectiveness of the healthcare system, both for those who receive services and those who provide them.


INTRODUCTION
The US healthcare system suffers from high costs and low quality compared to healthcare systems internationally, as measured by reported life expectancy [4] and infant mortality. High rates of nosocomial infection (infections acquired in healthcare settings) as well as adverse drug effects (errors in the administration of medication) manifest the need for improvement in the system of care. At a cost of $2.5 trillion annually [6] the system is not delivering affordable, effective care. The paradox of higher costs and lower quality makes clear the existence of a systemic problem. How can we fix it? Complex systems science provides tools to address this question directly. In this paper we provide eight scientifically based steps toward reducing costs and improving quality. Our suggestions arise from an analysis of the US healthcare system in particular, but they are broadly applicable when adapted appropriately.


The eight steps are:

1. Separate simple care from complex care.
2. Empower workgroup competition as an incentive, and avoid regulating costs or quality.
3. Create superdoctor teams to rapidly diagnose and treat highly complex conditions.
4. Accelerate intake routing to rapidly identify the right provider.
5. Add redundancy to improve communication to prevent prescription errors.
6. Create disinfection gateways at spatial boundaries to reduce hospital-based infections.
7. Use e-records for research to supplement clinical studies.
8. Promote “First Day” celebrations to encourage healthy behavior...

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VII. USE E-RECORDS FOR RESEARCH

Scientific principle—“Big data” research: Our increasingly complex world yields massive quantities of data, and we now have the scientific knowledge to perform pattern recognition on the data. Scientists are utilizing such “big data” methods in areas as diverse as genomics, finance, and crime prevention. If made available, the vast corpus of medical records should result in the discovery of opportunities for advancement in medicine. This approach complements the more traditional and more controlled framework of specially designed clinical trials.
Electronic records, which have become increasingly prevalent in recent years, represent a valuable repository of medical data. There are over 300 million people in the United States, most of whom are receiving some sort of medical care. If anonymized medical records were made available to researchers, these e-records could be leveraged to improve care at low cost.
In today’s quest to answer questions about medicine and human health, the large-scale, controlled clinical trial is central. New drugs, surgical techniques, non-surgical interventions and medical devices are typically tested in such studies, which require the creation of control and test groups, controlling for confounding factors such as age and lifestyle, and the tracking of patients...
[S]ince each person’s medical records may cover many years, we can learn about long term effects much more easily and cost-effectively by analyzing these available data than by conducting longitudinal studies on a particular therapy. Thus, we can use these data to discover long-term effects that may otherwise not be detected at all. Leveraging the availability of care data to increase our knowledge can’t and shouldn’t replace controlled studies or physician experience. But it can be a powerful and cost-effective tool, allowing us to utilize huge amounts of information and new methods of analysis to increase our medical knowledge, improving our ability to treat patients and take care of ourselves...
Interesting paper (pdf, 47 pages). Arguing CER in the foregoing, essentially.

More:
A hundred years ago, physicians were generalists, treating most medical conditions. Humanity didn’t have nearly as much medical knowledge and knowhow back then so that for the most part a single doctor could master what was known. That has changed

Medical knowledge now far exceeds a single expert’s ability to master it. Medical students receive a general training and then they specialize, seeking to learn just one small piece of what we know about medicine.

Specialists have become essential because of the complexity of care. The more we learn, the more kinds of specialists are needed. Increasingly, however, it is necessary to have patients see multiple specialists for a single problem, which causes fragmentation and delays the care. Furthermore—and critically—the interplay between multiple causes of a single condition, or multiple aspects of its treatment, makes it difficult for the separated specialists to address such complex problems. 

What is the solution? 

A human being is a single working system and specialists must be able to work together as an integrated unit for diagnosis and treatment. Specially constituted teams of physicians and other care providers who work together on a regular basis should address the more complex problems. The cost of having such a team in place might seem high, but for complex cases such a team will prove to be more effective and less costly than the alternative—the difficulties, delays, and costs inherent in multiple appointments. The challenge is making sure the teams can work together smoothly and efficiently, and with better results than specialists working separately.
A well-integrated team of specialist physicians can be thought of as a “superdoctor.” In order for medical teams to be superdoctors, they must get to know each other’s strengths
and styles and act together seamlessly. Well- integrated teams have the combined specialized knowledge of each member and more: they have the ability to relate these different domains of knowledge and combine them in new ways. Moreover, they can act rapidly with this combined knowledge. They can be an important part of the solution to the problems of fragmentation. 

Such teams have become standard practice in cancer care, where specialists in imaging, surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy often meet and work together to treat patients. The wide diversity of cancers and of individual responses to treatment make the team approach necessary for effective care. These teams generally also include non-physician practitioners. While the team approach is most widely used for cancer, some medical centers, recognizing the problem of fragmentation in care, are using the team approach for other conditions. 

To be most effective, superdoctor teams need to work together on a regular basis. If you were to throw together several sports players—even professional athletes—to play as a team without training together, they would not play as well as they would with team members who they were used to. Similarly, medical teams must “practice” together to fully leverage their collective ability...
For one thing, all of this beckons me Down in the Weeds' again (here as well). In addition, I come back to my rant of late about the enervating friction posed by "psychosocial toxicity" in the healthcare workforce.
I recently challenged another physician's blog post definition of healthcare's "toxic workplace" as perhaps too narrow (given that it was simply a petulant litany of all the ways physicians are burdened by organizational and regulatory things they dislike). His response?

"Go to hell."
Finally, I can just hear the blog trolls (usually using untraceable screen handles, but all claiming to be physicians) dismissively noting the lack of the letters "MD" in the masthead of this monograph. Yaneer Bar-Yam is a physicist. His collaborators? No clue. I don't see "MD" anywhere.

BTW, see their list of healthcare papers here.

I repeat, from my "Talking Stick" post,
It's not just about me, or you. It's about us. i.e., it's equally about interpersonal relations and mutual perceptions -- organizational dynamics. It's about "culture."

It's about "Humble Inquiry," about being "Mindwise," about the nurturing of the mutual-accountability "Just Culture" necessary for a collegial, high-engagement, high-performance interdisciplinary team-based workforce.

All of which goes necessarily to "Leadership," as leaders are the only ones with the requisite authority -- the ones who ultimately set and enforce the tone of organizational culture for better or worse. "Critical thinkers" in a psychosocially toxic organization may well simply be seen as insubordinate troublemakers.

It's about authenticity at every level within an organization, and the nurturing of a healthy culture that supports it.

...nurturing of the mutual-accountability "Just Culture" necessary for a collegial, high-engagement, high-performance interdisciplinary team-based workforce.
High morale and engagement and openness to the ongoing rigors of process improvement and effective high-cognitive burden teamwork simply requires it.
More.
For electronic systems, auto-completion and simple check boxes should be avoided. These items are more prone to error precisely because they are quick and easy. Instead, it is important to have the prescriber provide all key information longhand and verify it. Writing something twice admittedly takes more time but the prevention of errors, as in writing checks, must be considered of primary importance.
Yeah, that'll go over really swell in the era of the put-upon provider. But, the authors are right. Consider, e.g.:
EHR Design: Default Values as a Cause of Errors
by JEROME CARTER, MD, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014


When designing software, a lot of care is given to squashing bugs. But what does one do when the design itself is the problem?  Spotlight on Electronic Health Record Errors: Errors Related to the Use of Default Values, an article published by the Pennsylvania Patient Safety Authority, sheds much needed light on this subject.  As the report notes, default values are usually considered a safety measure and not a potential source of errors.  Yet, their study found that default values introduced errors into EHR systems...

From a software design standpoint, these errors can be difficult to prevent because they rely on people to make alterations.  Using default values for medications or any type of order may seem helpful (e.g., assure some value is entered, save time by making common orders quick), but they make assumptions that, as these errors show, do not always hold.

Like many others, my encounter with this behavior happened with standard orders in hospitals.  Protocols for anticoagulants come to mind.   Systems are programmed to insist something be done, but are not necessarily smart enough to recognize a clear contraindication.  As such, the responsibility for preventing errors falls back onto busy, distracted clinicians – not a great error prevention strategy.

Attempts to prevent default values from accidentally going unchanged or assuring that user entries are accepted by the system can be maddening.  Using local validation rules (e.g., rules that apply only for that particular data entry value) makes error prevention difficult unless there is information available that provides “state” information as the process is occurring.

For example, if a user enters orders and does not change the default value, it could mean that he agrees with the default.  Of course, it could also mean that he simply forgot.  Resolving this issue requires more information about the ordering process itself. Here is one example of where workflow modeling can help in software design...
 This brought me back to my 3GL/4GL programmer days of the 80's. A "nul" value should not equate to "zero" or some other default value, but it too frequently does. Analytically, nuls must be regarded as "missing values" and static defaults must be coded with extreme care. Rigid RDBMS enforcement of stuff like "No Dupes, No Nuls" -- "relational integrity" at the data dictionary level -- is as necessary today as it was during my ancien time writing code.

BTW, Lovely comment over at THCB:
Jeff Goldsmith says:


Spoken like a spectator who’s never actually used the technology. In most EMR’s, including the market leaders, the data you actually need to “pinpoint” anything is buried six-ten clicks deep in completely unusable Windows 95 style user interfaces. If you’re lucky, you can “pinpoint” problems that happened four hours or two days ago. It’s almost impossible to find the real problems amid the bins full of templated excelsior. If you don’t believe me, ask your doctor to show you your electronic health record sometime. It’s virtually useless...
The people who’ve taken this technology furthest, like Kaiser and Geisinger, had to spend a small fortune on custom built electronic data repositories which abstract data from the patient records and organize it into useable population based files, and on custom built analytic routines and protocols to actually guide the care...

handy new timesavers???
Another zinger, same post:
platon20 says:
This article was written by an administrator who has zero experience treating patients, yet is a so-called “expert” on healthcare. Please notice the oxymoron in that.


Administrators are anxious to control doctors to “hold down costs” while at the same time paying themselves hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars while supposedly “creating value” that doesnt exist...
Interesting concluding thoughts in the foregoing Bar-Yam et al paper:
Organizations of different types—companies, religious organizations, schools, towns, states—can set up programs that encourage people to take responsibility for their own health and lifestyle, and they can provide supportive communities toward that end. The organizations themselves can undertake new commitments to improve social health and community well-being.

Some people may want their goals and commitments to be private or to share them with friends; others may be pleased to share them publicly. The key is for familiar institutions and networks to support each person’s desire to improve his or her life and each person’s journey toward better health.


Social network follow-up interactions can be planned. Internet-based and mobile device apps with calendars, reminders, and checklists can be developed to support people in reaching their goals.

We can dramatically improve health by inspiring individual responsibility and action. When people embrace their health as a personal opportunity and are also given community support, they reveal tremendous power to make lasting improvements in their own lives and each other’s.
Upstream, baby. We will have to venture all the way "upstream."

Joe Flower has a good new post up:
SURVIVING HEALTHCARE

Health care is fragile. It survives in a much narrower band of circumstances than most of us realize. Right now many hospitals and systems are having a second down year in a row. They’re consolidating, laying off people, working through major shifts in strategy — all because of what we must admit (if we are honest) are relatively minor economic shifts, such as small reductions in utilization and Medicare payments, a blunting of accustomed price rises, and stronger bargaining from health plans.


If minor revenue stream problems put your entire institution in jeopardy of chaotic deconstruction, it cannot be called robust.

At the same time, an increasing number of vectors outside the sealed world of health care could overwhelm and kill your institution, from climate chaos to pollution disasters to epidemics and the loss of antibiotics.

These two concatenations of threats, within and without health care, have similar and interlocking answers. The extent to which your institution is bloated, profligate of resources and highly dependent on its current streams of revenue, energy and human resources is exactly the extent to which it is a system with very little reserve capacity. In an increasingly high-variance world, your survival depends on getting green, lean, resilient and smaller...
Good stuff, Mr. Flower.
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COMING UP


Wherein IHI moves to appropriate and brand the High Ground. I'm surprised they didn't put "TM" after the phrase "Quality Improvement" (like the ChutzpahMeister who staked out "Lean Startup®").

PDSA is PDSA, not "PDSA ®", Science is "Science," not "Science ®."
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UPDATE: From the paper:
Executive Summary

In the past 25 years, improvement in health care has grown from demonstration projects into a worldwide movement. Dominant in this movement has been an improvement approach grounded in the work of Walter Shewhart, W. Edwards Deming, Joseph Juran, and Associates in Process Improvement, and shaped in practice by the staff and faculty of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI). Today, this “IHI approach” to quality improvement (referred to as “IHI-QI” throughout this paper) provides a framework for thousands of improvement practitioners around the globe. Meanwhile, many people in health care have heard about Lean and the Toyota Production System (TPS) as a powerful method for improvement and cost reduction in manufacturing, and about its notably successful application in health care by influential organizations such as Virginia Mason Medical Center and ThedaCare.

People often want to know about the relationship between IHI-QI and Lean, and how they can best utilize one or both approaches to improve their own care systems. This white paper aims to address these issues, and argues that because IHI-QI and Lean are complementary ways of approaching improvement, it is not necessary to choose one over the other as a guide to action...

IHI-QI is a vibrant discipline. It has not ossified into dogma, thanks in good measure to the diversity, energy, and idealism of its adherents, and to the “open source” approach that IHI has promoted with regard to methods and content. IHI faculty have been encouraged to candidly share their best ideas, in the belief that the field can most rapidly and effectively advance health care quality through collaboration. Together, the IHI community has grown in an atmosphere of transparency and a spirit of “all teach, all learn.”

IHI-QI is often confused with one of its core elements, the Model for Improvement (see Figure 1). The Model — three clarifying questions and the Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycle — has formed the mainstay of IHI’s teaching and improvement methodology over the years. But despite its fame, and despite its manifest utility in almost any life situation, the Model for Improvement is not synonymous with IHI-QI.

The Model for Improvement, developed by Associates in Process Improvement, is a general purpose heuristic for learning from experience and guiding purposeful action. More simply, it is an “algorithm for achieving an aim” at any scale. As a tool for gaining practical knowledge, it represents a radical distillation of pragmatic epistemology into a habit of immediate, sequential testing of changes. One objective of this paper is to reconsider the Model for Improvement in its proper place, as a pervasive guide for action within the larger context of IHI-QI.

At present, Lean tools and methods are rapidly gaining adherents among aspiring health care improvers. As health care leaders have embraced the results-oriented discipline of industrial quality improvement, interest in more effective management systems has increased. The Toyota Production System (TPS), in particular, has received much attention. TPS is rooted in the innovations of Taiichi Ohno and colleagues in Toyota factories starting soon after the end of World War II. Adaptations of TPS are widely known by reference to one of its key principles of practice, “Lean” — the drive to devise nimble tasks, processes, and enterprises that maximize value and minimize waste in all its forms. Leading health care organizations, notably Virginia Mason Medical Center in Seattle, ThedaCare in Wisconsin, and the Pittsburgh Regional Health Initiative in Pennsylvania, have adopted TPS as their model for management and improvement, with widely recognized success...

The IHI Approach to Quality Improvement


For the purposes of this paper, we refer to IHI-QI as the approach to improvement developed by Associates in Process Improvement and promulgated by IHI, grounded in the work of W. Edwards Deming, with roots reaching deep into pragmatic philosophy, systems theory, Walter Shewhart’s statistical treatment of quality, human psychology and logic, and the scientific experimental method.

IHI-QI draws a fundamental distinction between the system to be improved and the techniques and methods used to improve it. IHI-QI seeks to formulate and codify generalizable knowledge that, when applied in other systems, can yield predictable improvements.

All improvement requires that changes be made in the system (though to be sure, not all changes are improvements). Building on the knowledge of subject matter experts, improvers target changes that are predicted to lead to improvement in a specific system. These changes are then tested and amended through iterative Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycles to produce sustainable improvement. Such changes comprise the “content” of improvement...

In working to improve a system, IHI-QI practitioners employ an array of conceptual frameworks and methods drawn from many disciplines in order to understand and influence complex adaptive systems such as health care organizations. Selection of methods will vary greatly depending on the scope, scale, and context of the work...

Summary and Implications


Lean and the principles of TPS are in no way antithetical to the IHI approach to quality improvement, and vice versa. Lean is, in a sense, a complex and deep “application” of Profound Knowledge, a particular deployment of improvement in the realm of production systems, though it was not purposely conceived as such. IHI-QI is a general approach that guides the development and application of execution theories across a range of specified contexts to realize clearly stated goals. We can consider Lean and TPS to be an example of such an execution theory. The TPS package of interdependent change concepts was originally developed to optimize manufacturing production systems. It represents a “template” for improving such systems, with a set of predefined aims, change concepts, implementation roadmap, and tools...
Link to the full paper here. It's a good paper overall, nice historical summary of the evolution of QC/QA/QI legacy methods (long familiar to my wife and I), and a decent side-by-side tabulation of the putative "differences" between Lean and "IHI QI" (some of which, though, seem to be mere semantic quibbles in the service of turf branding).

But "Associates for Process Improvement" did not "develop" PDSA (originally called"PDCA," Plan-Do-Check-Act), they simply re-branded it with the phrase "Model For Improvement." The fact that Lean "was originally developed to optimize manufacturing production systems" is a blinding glimpse of the historically obvious (rooted in the TPS, "Toyota Production System"), and is irrelevant to its successful adaptation and application within various service industries, including the most complex of all, healthcare.

Old wine, new bottle?
(scroll down in the link)
Moreover, on the repeated "Lean is about reducing cost" thing, Lean Sensei Mark Graban writes:
Lean is Not About Cutting Costs...
 

Two pet peeves of mine are hearing people say things like “Lean is all about reducing waste” and or “Lean is all about cost cutting” (and thankfully others are also trying to dispel that myth). Another pet peeve is people drawing conclusions off of two data points, but we’ll come back to that later in this post.

Lean is not “all about” waste — we also focus on providing the right “value” to the patient or customer (doing the right thing the right way at the right time and the right place). Reducing waste is a big part of Lean, but it’s not the only thing.

Of course, we know that reducing waste is not exactly the same as “cutting costs.” Reducing wasteful activity in a process or value stream will often lead to lower cost, but it also leads to better flow and better quality, among other things...
Again, there's a ton of overlap/wiggle room in all of these characterizations. See also Mark's post
Lean is a “Generic” Term for TPS (and The Toyota Way), Says Dan Jones
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More to come...

Monday, January 16, 2012

Down in the Weeds'

OK, I have just finished an intense red-penned, yellow-highlighted, margin-noted initial cover-to-cover pass through "Medicine in Denial" (which I have heretofore cited in a number of recent prior posts).

One hardly knows where to begin. 267 pages of unmitigated butt-whup. It has to have its own post (note that I put a permanent link to the book on Amazon, over on the right; get a copy). Suffice it to say at the outset here that, if I ruled Health Care, this would be the first required text in med school. Maybe even before that.


Increasingly mindful of avoiding the pitfalls of "confirmation bias," I've held further observation and commentary until actually finishing all of it. It is one profound piece of work. I am extremely grateful to co-author Lincoln Weed for the post-pub proof copy. He admonished
"be aware that this is not a quick read."


Indeed. And, it has been worth every minute, every hour.
Building the infrastructure and changing the culture of medicine cannot be left to the medical profession alone. Leaders outside the profession, and especially the general public, need to understand the transformation that is possible. But writings like this book will not make that happen. A recurring pattern in the history of medicine is the persistence of ineffective or harmful practices, and resistance to needed innovations. What is needed to change that pattern is public understanding of why the status quo is bankrupt, a shared vision of an alternative, and an external compulsion to change...

...It does little good to subsidize the purchase of EHRs if their inputs are not guided and defined by knowledge coupling software compatible with the EHR design. It does little good to equip practitioners with knowledge coupling software if they are left free to exercise judgment on when to use the software or what data to collect. It does little good to design interoperable EHRs for exchanging patient data if the design does not also organize the data for coordinated care of multiple problems by multiple practitioners over time. It does little good for multiple EHR vendors to separately design such EHRs if variations reduce interoperability and ready comprehension by all. [pg 174]
This is an important book. It goes to the very core of the work I now do, work I believe in, but work that needs much more clarity of purpose.

Interview with Lawrence Weed, MD — The Father of the Problem-Oriented Medical Record Looks Ahead
A Final Question

LJ: Dr Weed, you have had an amazing career implementing a needed change in how patient data is handled through the POMR. Today, you outlined another major change that needs to be incorporated if the practice of medicine is to be improved. On the basis of your experience as an innovator, and knowing what you know today about medical education and the practice of medicine, are you optimistic such changes will be forthcoming?

LW: Based on what I know about all the vested interests in the present medical education system and in the present practice of medicine, I am not optimistic such changes will be forthcoming...

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QUICK DIVERSIONARY ERRATUM


Well, that can't continue much longer. Click the graph for the link (PDF). The red text above is my text annotation (avg annual increase $1,127, linear R-sq 0.9979). Drop the numbers into Excel and extrapolate to the end of the decade.

Notwithstanding that the statistical +/- confidence limits around a linear projection will bow the further you go into the future, the implications should be clear (moreover, [1] the bowed CIs cut both ways, and, [2] nominal aggregate annual spending will not be as telling as "spending per service rendered," i.e., decreased "UTIL" -- self/household-rationing as a contributory function of increased cost).

NOTE: the Milliman report is silent as to whether their cost data are inflation adjusted.
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AMA WORKFLOW TUTORIAL

So, today (18th) I saw a news item regarding a new HIT online workflow tutorial posted by the AMA.

Click the graphic above for the link. Not bad. I signed up and went all the way through it. Nicely done. They give docs CME credit for completing it, but others (clinic staff and interested people like me) get a "Certificate of Participation."


I found it well worth my time -- only took me about 90 minutes, and, it bookmarks where you left off if you have to do something else prior to completing the tutorial. Nice.

Nothing really that I didn't already know, and lacking some core stuff I'd have liked to seen included (e.g., task times-to-completion and error rates; see my "Workflow 4 Anyone" Powerpoint), but I came away from it with a sharpened attention to workflow issues pertaining to "pre-visit planning," which will be something to be more fully considered in our upcoming PCMH'ish CMS Innovations Grant should we get the award (see my prior post). Not to mention "Accountable Care" more broadly.

Sub-MD staff "Health Coaches" and all that.

Which segues neatly back into

DOWN IN THE WEEDS: "COOKBOOK MEDICINE"


“Physicians are right to condemn forms of control that involve exclusion of information and power over decision making. But physicians are in denial about the extent to which they themselves impose these forms of control on patients. Physicians are right to reject impoverished, cookbook medicine, but they are in denial of how impoverished is their own know-how. So too are they in denial when they view themselves as “highly skillful,” because their levels of skill would be far greater within a disciplined system of care. Physicians are right that “one cannot separate the decision from its context,” and they are right to reject uninformed controls by ‘outsiders.’“ But they are in denial of how much they themselves are uninformed outsiders to patients’ lives, outsiders whose exercise of control inevitably separates medical decision making from its context. And they are in denial of the need to submit to different forms of control over their own inputs to care—both decision making inputs and execution inputs.

Execution inputs were the primary focus of the Institute of Medicine’s To Err is Human. That report highlighted the need to protect patient safety by exercising tight control over execution of medical procedures. When we turn from execution to decision making, it is best to think in terms of not controlling but defining inputs, that is, making explicit the inputs that form the basis for decisions.

The basic inputs to decision making are (1) medical knowledge, (2) patient data and (3) the processing of that information. All three of those inputs are undefined and uncontrolled when they originate from the unaided minds of physicians. No one can know exactly what information physicians take into account, nor can we know how they take it into account, nor can we reliably improve the cognitive processes involved. All we know for certain is that medical decisions are enormously variable. The outcome is that patients have no assurance of reliable decision making…

In contrast, a system of defined inputs means first that the knowledge and data taken into account, and the processing of that information, are explicitly defined. Second, it means exercising some degree of control over the manner in which the defined elements are combined. Defining inputs to decisions in this way does not dictate those decisions any more than defining the elements of writing (an alphabet and standards of spelling and grammar) dictates the content of writing.

The need for tight definition and control over inputs goes without saying when the inputs are drugs and medical devices. An elaborate regulatory scheme controls entry into the marketplace and ongoing manufacture of drugs and devices. Yet, nothing comparable exists for the most important medical devices of all—the minds and hands of physicians. Graduate medical education, state law credentialing and board certification purport to regulate the entry of new physicians into the marketplace, while various ad hoc interventions (such as malpractice litigation and licensure board disciplinary proceedings) purport to regulate ongoing performance. Yet, no one trusts these forms of control. Epidemics of medical error, unnecessary care and irrational spending confirm that trust is not warranted. The reason is that existing regulation fails to define and control inputs to care comprehensively.

This means continually optimizing care at every step of decision making and execution. Optimizing care means not only enforcing high standards of care but also continuously incorporating feedback and new scientific advances. This continuous and comprehensive improvement entails a constant assault upon the status quo—upon the habits and roles and economic claims that take root from established practices…” [“Medicine in Denial” pp 44-45]


Click the above Dr. Richard Gitomer quote for the link to the location from where I appropriated the last two graphics. Emory University, Woodruff Health Sciences, "Cookbook Medicine."

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APROPOS OF THE FOREGOING


Click the title above. This got cross-posted today on The Health Care Blog (wherein the always impolitic and sometimes reactively irascible BobbyG commented).
The good old days

In the good old days, I could pick up a chart from the rack outside the door, and in what seems life a few seconds, familiarize myself with with my patient’s history (because I kept a great paper chart if I do say so myself…) before opening the door to greet her. During the visit, I could sit with the chart in my lap, jotting down notes as we spoke, my focus on my patient and my thoughts rather than a user interface. Once the visit was over, a few brief jotted notes and some well-placed check marks on the encounter form summarized the visit, a few scribbles on a prescription pad or radiology order form clipped to the chart finished the orders (the rest taken verbally by my tech), a check off or two on the superbill and I was done.

Indeed. Well, I'm as romantic and nostalgic as anyone. When I was in grade school
(George Washington Elementary) in Morristown NJ in the 1950's, our family doc Dr. Renna, MD did Normal Rockwell-esqe house calls, replete with his iconic Little Black Bag.

I have no idea how he got paid or how good his charts were.

That was then, this is now.
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BACK TO THE WEEDS'

This post is interesting (yet another cool blog).

...We need to affirm the necessity of having a transparent objective scientific standard for medicine. Otherwise, there is no standard of care. There would be no way of determining which treatments were legitimate and which were not. This question has many practical implications – which professions should be licensed, which treatments covered by insurance, which practices allowed under the scope of practice of each profession, what should be taught in medical, nursing, and other health-related curricula, and which practices constitute malpractice. Without a science-based standard, there are no answers to these questions...

...Further – we can’t have a double-standard. Within medicine there is a pretty clear consensus as to what the scientific standard is. It is slowly evolving, if anything becoming more stringent as we root out more and more subtle ways of subverting best scientific practice...
Indeed. But,
A core justification for the enormous time and expense of physician training, and for the legal monopoly and high compensation conferred on physicians, is their scientific training. Presumably that training enables physicians to apply medical science to patient needs with scientific rigor. Yet, one of the leading medical schools in the world here describes itself as failing to provide adequate experience in the elements of clinical medicine, failing to provide good learning conditions in either hospital and ambulatory settings, failing to provide uniformity of content, failing to enforce educational rigor, failing to reliably evaluate students’ core competency and failing to integrate basic science and clinical medicine. [Medicine in Denial, pg 199]

One gets the spins from all of this.
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More shortly...