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| Full essay here. |
Sorry for not pacing my Snark Reflex. Will the autonomous Pace Car be a Tesla or a Waymo? (Or, a BYD?)
Dunno, man...
So, I was channel-surfing just a bit ago, looking for a football game ('Bama), and ran across Smerconish.
Richard A. Clarke (@about 5:05)? Haven't heard his name in a while. Nice.
Look, I'm just an addled 80 yr-old smartass long out to pasture (now wrassling wth Parkinson's), but, back before indoor plumbing I was an ASQ Certified Quality Engineer, risk mgmt analyst (digital industrial maintenance diagnostics, credit risk, healthcare), wrote 3GL/4GL code and SOPs in a forensic-level environmental radiation lab in Oak Ridge, did a Master's in Applied Ethics, and was blessed to do a fun 5 yr adjunct stint teaching collegiate Critical Thinking. My Sheet is credible. Not interested adding more noise (unless I get too deep into the Bourdeaux).
I've done a first pass through Dario's essay. Lots to consider. It's getting a ton of "ink" today.
More shortly. Gotta Roll Tide...
UPDATE
KARA IS NOT AMUSED
JACOB WARD
Jacob concludes:
…I think one of the broader critiques I have for this whole category of principle-writing and letter-signing is that it’s being done by people like Amodei who, in spite of advice from some of the top ethical and political minds in the nation, somehow seem to believe that we can pre-program ethics into these systems, and also seem to believe the arbiter should be an AI company plus a nonprofit evaluator the AI company chose. As my guests John Patty and Elizabeth Penn explained in my interview with them, you can’t find two people on Earth who would agree on what those ethics should be. So claiming you’re going to handle that for everyone is bonkers
It may be that we get to the end of this wild, unchecked period in AI development and discover that we do have the restraint, the intellectual curiosity, and the philosophical rigor to pilot this stuff in a way that amplifies the best parts of being human. But if industry cooperation alone is how we pull that off, it’ll be the first time in history that’s the case. It’s going to take lawsuits, injunctions, trade deals, horrific poll numbers, and presidential campaigns to put AI in its rightful place as a useful tool that doesn’t make us into the worst version of ourselves, much less wipe us all out.
'eh?
BTW: keyword search "Ben Goertzel." Dude is way above my (now old coot part-time Walmart Greeter) pay grade. I hope he will soon weigh in on this AI "Pace" stuff.
OK... BEN ROCKS IT
The Depth-Psychology of Dario’s Precalculatedly Abortive “AI Slowdown”A long-read. Study all of it, closely. Here's a prior post, too.
Deconstructing Dario Amodei’s dubious call to “pace the frontier” through the lens of rational social theory - individual vs. group selection, civilized self-deception, and the math of emergent ethics
…Nations are groups, group selection built us to identify with them, and civilization gave every nation a self-model as full of bullshit as any individual’s. So it should surprise nobody that the US-China AI rivalry shows the same dynamics as the psychology of one CEO, scaled up.
Beijing’s response to the pacing essay has been, in essence: you want everyone to slow down because you’re ahead. However much I dislike that government saying it — I lived in Hong Kong for nine years and left partly because the national security laws the CCP imposed there didn’t agree with me as a loud-mouthed freedom-loving American — they’re not exactly wrong about that. If you’re behind in a race and the guy ahead proposes that everyone slow down by ten percent, you know what that proposal is. We saw this movie with pollution, where the US built its economy on fossil fuels and then asked China to stop polluting before China had caught up — and China’s answer, eventually, was to go win clean energy outright. They intend to do the same in AI, as they already have in humanoid robotics, and they won’t accept a freeze at a point where the US is ahead, not least because they don’t believe the US would slow down — an eminently reasonable belief, given that the essay proposing the slowdown also proposes widening the American lead…
UPDATE
A commenter responding to an article in The Atlantic:
“I can only imagine what happens if AI is specifically told to take down an adversary. Without firing one shot a whole society can collapse. Everything is digitized and connected. Imagine you wake up, your 401K and bank account is 0, financial systems are no longer working, your power and water is offline, groceries can no longer be produced and rot because of the lack of cooling and electricity, your medical record is destroyed and for good measure the record that you exist is gone. Communication is severely limited and anarchy is the result. Sounds like a bad movie but I believe this movie is right at our door.”
'eh?
BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE!
The screenplays just write themselves...
BEST LAUGH OF THE WEEKEND
Need I elaborate? Seriously?
OK (w/appropriate exasperation), under U.S. federal governance, enacted "Legislation" (statutes) tell us the "What" and (optionally) "Why." The subsequent "Regulations" (e.g., set forth in the CFR) tell us the operational "Who," "How," "Where," and "When" the "What" gets done. CFRs go through lengthy NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rulemaking) processes (I personally participated in them while in healthcare analytics). The CFRs have to hew to their parent statutes (lest they be challenged in court and perhaps invalidated for "exceeding the scope"). Yeah, it's tedious. Expediently "Self-regulate?" Can you say "Regulatory Capture?"
Human affairs get "governed/regulated" one way or another. Again, need I elaborate?
_____
FROM THE "EVEN-A-BROKEN-CLOCK-IS-RIGHT-TWICE-A-DAY" WHITE HOUSE TECHNOLOGY OFFICE
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop. —David Sacks
Yeah...
UPDATE
Good article by Axios' Dan Primack.
Most AI industry bigs— including Sam, Dario and Demis — have expressed at least some (p)doom concerns. Much like early subprime lending leaders warned against lowering standards (before they did). So far,, the money seems to still be talking louder, including in their own heads.
Ahhh... "Subprime."
UPDATES
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
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