AI update, revisited on "60 Minutes"

 

Recall our recent "Artificial Superintelligence" post? Is AGI now passe, not too many months later? Updates on deck.

 

Gemini?

 

Again, no substantive discussion jumps out questioning how much of the myriad Ben & Jerry'd flavors of "AI" are really just the relatively pedestrian "IA" technologies (Intelligence Enhancement).

 

UPDATE: 60 MINUTES OVERTIME

 

NEWS ITEM: FORTUNE

Sam Altman is wrong that the AI fraud crisis is coming—it’s already here

BY HAYWOOD TALCOVE

Sam Altman recently warned that AI-powered fraud is coming “very soon,” and it will break the systems we rely on to verify identity.

It is already happening and it’s not just coming for banks; it’s hitting every part of our government right now.

Every week, AI-generated fraud is siphoning millions from public benefit systems, disaster relief funds, and unemployment programs. Criminal networks are already using deepfakes, synthetic identities, and large language models to outpace outdated fraud defenses, including easily spoofed, single-layer tools like facial recognition, and they’re winning …f

... As I testified before the U.S. House of Representatives twice this year, what we’re seeing in the field is clear. Fraud is faster, cheaper, and more scalable than ever before. Organized crime groups, both domestic and transnational, are using generative AI to mimic identities, generate synthetic documentation, and flood our systems with fraudulent claims. They’re not just stealing from the government; they’re stealing from the American people.

The Small Business Administration Inspector General now estimates that nearly $200 billion was stolen from pandemic-era unemployment insurance programs, making it one of the largest fraud losses in U.S. history. Medicaid, IRS, TANF, CHIP, and disaster relief programs face similar vulnerabilities. We have also seen this firsthand in our work alongside the U.S. Secret Service protecting the USDA SNAP program, which has become a buffet for fraudsters with billions stolen nationwide every month. In fact, in a single day using AI, one fraud ring can file tens of thousands of fake claims across multiple states, most of which will be processed automatically unless flagged.

We’ve reached a turning point. As AI continues to evolve, the scale and sophistication of these attacks will increase rapidly. Just as Moore’s Law predicted that computing power would double every two years, we’re now living through a new kind of exponential growth. Gordon Moore, Intel’s co-founder, originally described the trend in 1965, and it has guided decades of innovation. I believe we may soon recognize a similar principle for AI that I call “Altman’s Law”: every 180 days, AI capabilities double.

If we don’t modernize our defenses with the same pace as technological advancements, we’ll be permanently outmatched…

AI is a force multiplier, but it can be weaponized more easily than it can be wielded for protection. Right now, criminals are using it better than we are. Until that changes, our most vulnerable systems and the people who depend on them will remain exposed.

Read all of it.

What could possibly go wrong? We have an administration ready to extend an unknown amount of probably billions of dollars on an AI industry that will pretty much be substantially “self regulated.” And, the same administration wants to unleash unfettered cryptocurrency ultimately backed by the US treasury. Need I repeat?

What could POSSIBLY go wrong?

 

NY TIMES ARTICLE

 

In a scene in HBO’s “Silicon Valley” in 2014, a character who had just sold his idea to a fictional tech company that was a thinly veiled analogue to Google encountered some of his new colleagues day drinking on the roof in folding lawn chairs. They were, they said tipsily, essentially being paid to do nothing while earning out — or “vesting” — their stock grants.

“Rest and vest,” the techies said, in between sips of beer.

The tongue-in-cheek sendup wasn’t far from Silicon Valley’s reality. At the time, young engineers at Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google made the most of what was known as the “Web 2.0” era. Much of their work was building the consumer internet — things like streaming music services and photo-sharing sites. It was a time of mobile apps and Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, wanting to give everyone a Facebook email address.

It was also the antithesis of corporate America’s stuffy culture. Engineers held morning meetings sitting in rainbow-colored beanbags, took lunch gratis at the corporate sushi bar and unwound in the afternoon with craft brews from the office keg (nitrogen chilled, natch). And if they got sweaty after a heated office table-tennis tournament, no matter — dry cleaning service was free.

That Silicon Valley is now mostly ancient history. Today, the tech has become harder, the perks are fewer and the mood has turned more serious. The nation’s tech capital has shifted into its artificial intelligence age — some call it the “hard tech” era — and the signs are everywhere.

In office conference rooms, hacker houses, third-wave coffee houses or over Zoom meetings, knowledge of terms like neural network, large language model and graphical processing unit has become mandatory. Stacked up against ChatGPT’s ability to instantly transform any image into a Studio Ghibli cartoon, Instagram’s photo filters are practically Paleolithic. And the chatter is about not how you built your app with the HTML5 coding language, but how many H100 graphics cards — the highly coveted hardware for running A.I. programs — you can get your hands on.

The tech epicenter has moved from the traditional cradle of Silicon Valley — the towns of San Jose, Mountain View, Menlo Park and Palo Alto — 40 miles north to San Francisco, the home of the A.I. start-ups OpenAI and Anthropic. Tech giants like Google are no longer hiring in droves as they once did. And those with jobs at those behemoths are met by the watchful eyes of managers looking to cut dead weight rather than coddle employees.

The region, long known for its capital-L Liberal politics, is no longer a political monoculture. A contingent of venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have spurred a rightward shift, leading to the rise of the “Liberaltarian” — a term coined by two Stanford political economists to describe the tech industry’s proclivity toward trumpeting liberalism in some social issues but maintaining antigovernment posturing in regulating businesses. Alongside that change, industries that were once politically incorrect among techies — like defense and weapons development — have become a chic category for investment…

Again, read all of it.

 

The NY Times piece really resonates with me. I have major Bay Area history (going back to the late 60's), including, in more recent years, the SF/Silicon Valley digital Health IT startup scenes. See here as well.

 

AI 2027 UPDATE

 

Read the AI 2027 Report here. Choose your speculation... 

AI 2027

 

PDF link

 

Follow-up on the heels of Karen Hao's new book Empire of AI.

 

Yeah, but then there's this current crap:

 

THE WARLORDS WHO SACKED ROME did not intend to doom western Europe to centuries of ignorance. It was not a foreseeable consequence of their actions. The same cannot be said of the sweeping attack on human knowledge and progress that the Trump administration is now undertaking—a deliberate destruction of education, science, and history, conducted with a fanaticism that recalls the Dark Ages that followed Rome’s fall.

Every week brings fresh examples. The administration is threatening colleges and universities with the loss of federal funding if they do not submit to its demands, or even if they do. The engines of American scientific inquiry and ingenuity, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, are under sustained attack. Historical institutions such as the Smithsonian and artistic ones like the Kennedy Center are being converted into homes for MAGA ideology rather than historical fact and free expression. Libraries are losing funding, government-employed scientists are being dismissed from their jobs, educators are being cowed into silence, and researchers are being warned not to broach forbidden subjects. Entire databases of public-health information collected over decades are at risk of vanishing. Any facts that contradict the gospel of Trumpism are treated as heretical…

Adam Serwer in The Atlantic.

…The book burnings of the past had physical limitations; after all, only the books themselves could be destroyed. The Trumpist attack on knowledge, by contrast, threatens not just accumulated knowledge, but also the ability to collect such knowledge in the future. Any pursuit of forbidden ideas, after all, might foster political opposition. Better for Americans to be as gullible and easily manipulated as the people who buy brain pills from right-wing podcasts, use ivermectin to treat COVID, or believe that vaccines are “weapons of mass destruction.” This purge will dramatically impair the ability to solve problems, prevent disease, design policy, inform the public, and make technological advancements. Like the catastrophic loss of knowledge in Western Europe that followed the fall of Rome, it is a self-inflicted calamity. All that matters to Trumpists is that they can reign unchallenged over the ruins.

Frank Bruni

...To live in fiction, commit to it. That’s the moral not merely of Trump and Jan. 6 but of Trump, period. Yesteryear’s hand-wringing about whether to label his individual falsehoods “lies” and those periodic tallies of his misstatements now seem quaint; they don’t do justice to the scope and audacity of what he’s up to. Nor does the occasional current chatter about “propaganda.” Trump is engaged in a multifront, multipronged attack on any and every version of events that impedes his goals and impugns his glory. It makes the spin control of presidents past look like child’s play.

Politicians routinely don masks, twist facts and peddle fables — President Joe Biden’s pretense of undiminished vigor and acuity is a recent and egregious example of that. But Trump’s machinations and manipulations go beyond discrete feints and specific ruses. They’re in an unscrupulous league of their own...

 

...If history is written by the victors, the present is fabricated by those who throw themselves most ruthlessly and shamelessly into the storytelling. Trump and his principal abettors are just about peerless in that regard. Rather than own up to the administration’s error in consigning Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia to a gulag in El Salvador, Trump falsely and stubbornly insists that Abrego Garcia has the name of the gang MS-13 tattooed on his hand. He showcases accusations of domestic violence in Abrego Garcia’s past. He and his aides rework the details so that Trump is without blame or blemish.

Just as they’ve done with Jan. 6. That day is a searing indictment of Trump — so he inverts it. Babbitt is reborn as an innocent. The hellions around her are a heavenly choir. That song they’re now singing? It’s an elegy for honesty.

QUICK TANGENTIAL DIVERSION

This elite higher ed dustup is insane.

 

NEW

 

Click

 A review of Adam Becker's new book on AI

Technologists currently wield a level of political influence that was recently considered unthinkable. While Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashes public services, Jeff Bezos takes celebrities to space on Blue Origin and the CEOs of AI companies speak openly of radically transforming society. As a result, there has never been a better moment to understand the ideas that animate these leaders’ particular vision of the future.

In his new book, More Everything Forever, the science journalist Adam Becker offers a deep dive into the worldview of techno-utopians such as Musk—one that’s underpinned by promises of AI dominance, space colonization, boundless economic growth, and eventually, immortality. Becker’s premise is bracing: Tech oligarchs’ wildest visions of tomorrow amount to a modern secular theology that is both mesmerizing and, in his view, deeply misguided. The author’s central concern is that these grand ambitions are not benign eccentricities, but ideologies with real-world consequences…

I totally love the dated USB cable in the art.

 

Nice review in the aggregate. Perhaps episodically out over his skis just a smidge. Nonetheless, quite worthy.

 

Check this out:

Astrophysicist and science journalist Adam Becker has his eye on the dreams of Silicon Valley’s billionaire elite—and he’s unimpressed. He says Silicon Valley’s “heartless, baseless, and foolish obsessions”—with escaping death, building AI tyrants, and creating limitless growth—pervert public discourse and distract us from real social problems.

He argues that tech billionaires have decided that they should determine our futures for us, and that the only good future for humanity is one powered by technology: trillions of humans living in space, functionally immortal, served by superintelligent AIs.

In More Everything Forever, Becker investigates what he calls wildly implausible and often profoundly immoral visions of tomorrow—and shows why, in reality, there is no good evidence that they will, or should, come to pass. Nevertheless, these obsessions fuel fears that overwhelm reason—for example, that a rogue AI will exterminate humanity—at the expense of essential work on solving crucial problems like climate change. What’s more, these futuristic visions cloak a hunger for power under dreams of space colonies and digital immortality. The giants of Silicon Valley claim that their ideas are based on science, but Becker says the reality is darker: they come from a jumbled mix of shallow futurism and racist pseudoscience.

Adam Becker says that powerful and sinister ideas are alive in Silicon Valley. Now he comes to the heart of the global tech world to challenge us to see how these visions of the future are foolish and dangerous.

'eh?

 

More shortly...