Flash-Bang Bondi

Vigorously protecting MAGAmerica from the irritating First Amendment Free Speech clause.

   

Loyal co-conspirator in Trump Obstruction of Justice?

Untying the knot of Self

Patience, grasshoppers...

Anyone who thinks the contemplative life amounts to a form of quietism or a retreat from the world’s suffering should spend some time shadowing Joan Halifax, the Zen priest and anthropologist. I’d been curious about Halifax for years, ever since I heard about an annual trek that she leads through the mountains of Nepal, bringing a cadre of doctors and dentists to remote mountain villages with little access to health care.

Each summer over the course of two weeks or so, this Nomads Clinic covers more than 100 miles on foot and horseback, at altitudes of nearly 18,000 feet. These “medical mountaineers,” as they’ve been called,  all volunteers, sleep in tents, often in freezing temperatures. But after some 40 annual trips to Nepal—Halifax is normally based in Santa Fe—she recently decided it was time to hang it up. She had just turned 80.

In addition to bringing medical care to remote mountain villages half a world away, Halifax has ministered to the dying in hospice, worked with the homeless in New Mexico, cared for prisoners on death row, and led countless protests for peace. I don’t know if Halifax has shed the last remnants of her ego—she would say she hasn’t—but the selflessness she manifests in the conduct of her life is something to behold, a reminder of what the exploration of human consciousness can lead a person to do and be. This, too, is a Buddhist principle—that overcoming one’s own small self should lead to greater compassion for others, and that the suffering alleviated when we transcend the ego is not only our own.

For more than 30 years, Halifax has been the abbot at Upaya Zen Center, the retreat she founded in Santa Fe in 1990. I’ve had the chance to meet her a couple of times; once, we appeared together on a panel to talk about psychedelics. Halifax was married to the pioneering Czech psychiatrist Stanislav Grof for several years in the 1970s. Working together, they gave transformative doses of LSD to the dying. For a period of time, Halifax regularly took large doses of LSD herself. Her first psychedelic trip, while wandering the streets of Paris in 1968, showed her “that there was beauty behind the beauty I perceived, and that mind was both in here and out there. I was dumbstruck.”

I could relate. After years of curiosity about psychoactive plants, my own experimentation with mushrooms and LSD in recent years fundamentally changed the way I understand the mysteries of consciousness and the self. So in 2024, I emailed Halifax to see if I might pay a visit to Upaya. My idea was to spend a week or so in residence, meditating with the aspiring monks, performing monkish chores, interviewing Halifax, and seeing if I could make a little more progress untying the knot of self… [Michael Pollan]

From Michael's forthcoming book (below, left).

 

  

 

On the right, above; his prior book. Tangentially apropos topic.

 

I would also recommend this awesome book for a bit of context.

 

yaje...

It is a winter’s night in Rio de Janeiro, 1987. It is raining and the boulevard in front of the Copacabana Hotel is deserted. The road is slick and shining in the light of the street-lamps. My wife, Trudie, and I are sheltering beneath an umbrella, while high above our heads two seagulls wheel recklessly in the wind; and the sea is a roaring threat in the darkness. A small car pulls up to the curbside. There are two figures silhouetted in the front seat, and an opened rear door beckons us inside. 

A series of discreet phone calls have secured us an invitation to a religious ceremony in a church somewhere in the jungles that surround the great city. Our drivers, a man and a woman, tell us only that the church is located about an hour and a half from the Copacabana, that we will be looked after, and we shouldn’t worry. The church, while nominally Christian, is the home of a syncretic religious group that uses as its core sacrament an ancient medicine derived from plant materials known as ayahuasca, and it is said to induce extraordinary and profound visions…

(Musician) Sting. Broken Music: A Memoir (pp. 1-2). (Function). Kindle Edition.

More to come... 

Obscenity. We know it when we see it.

More than ENOUGH of this shit!

MY FRIEND PAUL

My esteemed friend "St.Paul" Peterson is a Minneapolis-St Paul native. He was the keyboardist for Prince, recording and touring with him on the "Purple Rain" tour. We first met while he was playing bass for Kenny Loggins and touring with him. Paul got Kenny to come sit in with my friends' band in Las Vegas in 2008. We've emailed since this ICE debacle has ensued. He is a great guy and giant musical talent. I hope he and all of his peeps will be safe.

 

My eldest nephew David (my sister's first-born) lives in Minneapolis also. MS in Civil Engineering, doing hydrological design & construction projects in a firm he founded. He is totally pissed and anxious over this Trump ICE mess, and, father of two, at a loss over proper, effective, and lawful response measures. 

The ICE Storm

According to Donald Trump, it is now a summary on-the-spot Capital Offense to "be disrespectful" to His "Law Enforcement."
  

The killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis by ICE agents

There’s a moment in every country’s descent where the brutal men in fearsome uniforms and tall boots stop shoving and start shooting.
We are at that moment.

The body of Alex Pretti is still in a morgue today, still on a cold slab, his remains torn by five rounds fired in his back by an ICE agent drunk on the heady power of brutality and the promise of absolute immunity.

In America, our elite media and political classes have for a decade pretended that moment is always somebody else’s problem, some faraway place with a theocracy, a junta, or a strongman whose portrait hangs in every home and building like a warning label.

But the last few weeks have been a case study in what happens when a government decides the Constitution is an annoying speed bump and the citizenry is a crowd-control problem.

We know the horrors ICE has committed in Minneapolis and beyond. The casual brutality, the arrogant dismissal of rights, the hideous capering and laughter at the suffering they inflict on both immigrants and Americans. They are, in our digital age, recorded for grim posterity.

People of goodwill talk about de-escalation, about easing tensions, about bringing the pot down from an imminent boil to a simmer.
They are fools.

The incentives for the Trump Administration’s armed political force are entirely ratcheting in one direction, and we must consider that direction now. Donald Trump, Stephen Miller, the vast MAGA influencer and propaganda ecosystem, and DHS itself have no incentive to slow down, to turn around, to stop their war on our rights and liberties.

I beg you to understand this: everything happening in Minnesota with ICE delights them. This isn’t a crisis for them; it’s a big shove of the Overton Window toward the fascism they now openly crave.

So let’s talk about the nightmare headline hovering on the horizon: what happens when ICE fires into a crowd of protestors?

I wish I could tell you this is an impossibility, that training, doctrine, discipline, and leadership at every level of government will prevent an escalation where ICE murders Americans wholesale instead of retail, but dear friends, I cannot.

The culture of ICE and the entire MAGA political and media ecosystem is driving them toward it, a confrontation where the Trump Era moves to the next level of oppression and terror.

Here’s how I see the moment playing out, first as narrative, then as prediction… [click here]

Where is this all headed? 

 

"THE FASCISM THEY NOW OPENLY CRAVE"

Click

Until recently, I resisted using the F-word to describe President Trump. For one thing, there were too many elements of classical fascism that didn’t seem to fit. For another, the term has been overused to the point of meaninglessness, especially by left-leaning types who call you a fascist if you oppose abortion or affirmative action. For yet another, the term is hazily defined, even by its adherents. From the beginning, fascism has been an incoherent doctrine, and even today scholars can’t agree on its definition. Italy’s original version differed from Germany’s, which differed from Spain’s, which differed from Japan’s.

 

I accepted President Biden’s characterization of the MAGA movement as “semi-fascist” because some parallels were glaringly apparent. Trump was definitely an authoritarian, and unquestionably a patrimonialist. Beyond that, though, the best description seemed to be a psychological one propounded by John Bolton, Trump’s first-term national security adviser: “He listens to Putin, he listens to Xi, he listens to how they talk about governing unburdened by uncooperative legislatures, unconcerned with what the judiciary may do, and he thinks to himself, Why can’t I do that? This doesn’t amount to being a fascist, in my view, [or] having a theory of how you want to govern. It’s just Why can’t I have the same fun they have?”

Writing a year ago, I argued that Trump’s governing regime is a version of patrimonialism, in which the state is treated as the personal property and family business of the leader. That is still true. But, as I also noted then, patrimonialism is a style of governing, not a formal ideology or system. It can be layered atop all kinds of organizational structures, including not just national governments but also urban political machines such as Tammany Hall, criminal gangs such as the Mafia, and even religious cults. Because its only firm principle is personal loyalty to the boss, it has no specific agenda. Fascism, in contrast, is ideological, aggressive, and, at least in its early stages, revolutionary. It seeks to dominate politics, to crush resistance, and to rewrite the social contract.

Over Trump’s past year, what originally looked like an effort to make the government his personal plaything has drifted distinctly toward doctrinal and operational fascism. Trump’s appetite for lebensraum, his claim of unlimited power, his support for the global far right, his politicization of the justice system, his deployment of performative brutality, his ostentatious violation of rights, his creation of a national paramilitary police—all of those developments bespeak something more purposeful and sinister than run-of-the-mill greed or gangsterism…

It has been an unnerving weekend.

 

 

Well, things are spiraling increasingly out of control.

 

More ASAP...

A disturbing, enervating week

 

Now, we in the Baltimore / DC area await the weekend arrival of a huge snowstorm replete with single digit ambient temperatures. 

 

A boatload of stuff on deck. to wit:

 

 

Thursday evening Cheryl and I attended a Baltimore Speakers Series Ken Burns talk. A national treasure, he is. Just wow.

 

More shortly... 

Donald Trump Davos Switzerland Address

World Economic Forum 2026

 

Unreal. An utterly bizarre day.

The most broadly, deeply, and durably aggrieved person on the planet today.

UPDATE 

 I really like Jacob Ward's work.

Donald Trump warns NATO and the wider world

"Jonas" is the Prime Minister of Norway.
Trump sent him this on Sunday.

I probably need not even note that the Norwegian government neither adninisters nor awards the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

TELL US WHAT YA REALLY THINK, CONGRESSMAN

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) was beside himself in an interview on CNN about President Donald Trump's latest threats to annex Greenland, calling the president a "madman" who is divorced from reality and needs to be treated as such.

"This is a man, again, that only cares about himself," Gallego told Anderson Cooper. "First, he doesn't like commitment to other countries that are based on alliances, based on trust, because this man has no trust in anybody else, and he would rather just break whatever he can to get what he wants. And if we pay in the process, we as Americans, he doesn't care, right? This is the danger. Now he's a problem. Let's be clear. The reason he's there is because we have cowardly republicans in the Senate, in the House that are not standing up to this man."

"Well, it seems like European leaders' strategy so far has been to basically try to de-escalate, reason with the president, find some kind of an off-ramp," said Cooper. "Do you think there is an off-ramp?"

"No," said Gallego. "And I've been very clear. He is a madman. He is insane. He's only thinking about himself."

"You really think he's insane?" Cooper pressed him. 

"Yes!" shouted Gallego. "I'm sorry, where are we at this moment where we don't understand what's happening in this country? The man is threatening war against a NATO ally. We all think this is rational, right? Let's accept what's happening here. He is not rational right now. He is destroying our world reputation or potentially our economic opportunity or economic might and power around the world because he is being petty.

NY Times: "It seems safe to assume that when Harry Truman forged NATO at the dawn of the Cold War, he never imagined that over the course of nearly eight decades the only country that would wage economic war and threaten actual war against the allies for the purpose of territorial conquest would be the United States itself.

And yet that is the reality of this upside-down, might-makes-right world of President Trump’s creation as he slaps tariffs on America’s treaty partners and holds out the possibility of using military force to strong-arm Denmark and its European friends into giving up Greenland, a territory whose citizens do not want to become part of the United States.

Never in the past century has America gone forth to seize other countries’ land and subjugate its citizens against their will. Since the days of World War I, America was the country that resisted conquest, standing up to Hitler’s Germany, Tojo’s Japan, Stalin’s Soviet Union, Kim Il-sung’s North Korea and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq when they seized foreign terrain. Now Mr. Trump aspires to put America into the category of conquerors.

Coercing a loyal ally into giving up territory over its adamant objections would have been seen not long ago as preposterous, even mad — indeed, one of Mr. Trump’s own cabinet secretaries in his first term privately considered it delusional when he raised it back then. But it is a measure of how much Mr. Trump has changed the definition of normal that his appetite for seizing land that does not belong to him is debated as a serious proposition rather than dismissed out of hand as a brazen violation of U.S. treaty obligations and international law."

The politically convenient Subjectivism Fallacy

Really? Is everyone delusional? Variants of that phrase are the tiresome, simplistic MEGO bane of undergrad Phil101 and Phil102. For the truth-claim "there is no objective independent truth; everything is subjectively perceived," you run smack into a dispositive problem of pure logic.

Uhh... for the assertion to be "true," it must also be false.

Perhaps that paradox is good for some liberal arts yucks in Animal House, but little else beyond the fictional WTFC confines of Delta House and the bored professor played by Donald Sutherland.

The above graphic comes from the website "BIG THINK." And, yeah, I get the unstated nuance of their intended gist. But "Perception is an illusion" is a categorical assertion terminally afflicted with the "false dictotomy" problem. 

Foregoing a long pedandic philo rant. I'll merely observe that the San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge opened for traffic on May 27th 1937 in a highly active earthquake plate techtonics subduction zone—32,000+ days ago. I've sailed under that amazing bridge multiple times when I lived in SF

That aggregate engineering "independent objective truth" is good enough for this 80 yr old meat & potatoes washed-up guitar player.

OK, enough obtuse snark. It's been a ghastly week. One that doesn't portend better times drawing nigh. Iran? Cuba? Columbia? Panama? Mexico? Greenland? NATO writ large?

 

Below, from HuffPo:

 

In the hours following the aftermath of the fatal shooting of the unarmed Renee Nicole Good by an ICE officer in Minnesota on Wednesday, video footage of the incident has been watched, rewatched, slow-mo’d and analyzed from countless angles.

Yet a starkly different interpretation has emerged, along partisan lines, about what exactly went down: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confidently told Americans “it was an act of domestic terrorism” on the part of Good.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey responded: “They are already trying to spin this as an action of self-defense. Having seen the video myself, I want to tell everybody directly: That is bullshit.”

The fallout from this fundamental disagreement over reality — and what our eyes are actually witnessing in the footage — is at the core of the dogfight we’re currently witnessing in the press and on social media.

But how can different people look at the same footage and tell themselves entirely different stories about what they’re seeing? And how can people cope with these discrepancies and share communities with one another when they can’t seem to share a reality? HuffPost spoke with experts in psychology and group behavior to gain a better understanding of what’s happening.

The Ways We Watch Video Plays A Part

The medium of video feels fundamentally black and white, and straightforward. However, that leaves out one important factor: Our eyes.

“Video feels like an infallible witness. It doesn’t seem subjective,” Emily Balcetis, an associate professor of psychology and faculty director of research at New York University’s College of Arts and Sciences, told HuffPost. “But just as our eyes can only see what they are pointed at, so too can the camera capturing the footage. By necessity some of the surrounding context, constraints or forces contributing to what is captured never appear on camera.”

Our attention — and what it is drawn to — plays a part as well, particularly in fast-paced footage with a lot going on at once: “Our visual attention is limited, leaving us unable to see all of what is present especially in complex visual scenes,” Balcetis said. “Simply put, when we are looking to the right we can’t see what is to the left. We may be unaware of what we are unaware of, complicating our ability to fully appreciate what it is we have seen and what we might not even know we have not.”

Balcetis also notes that “WHAT we look at is often not random.” That’s because our attention is more likely to land on things that are brightly colored, quick or moving unexpectedly — and because we as individuals are potentially more likely to look in some places than others.

“As a social psychologist, my research has found that who we are — and the types of people we think share aspects of our identity and values — guides who we spend more time looking at,” she said. “Which means we might see more of what they are doing and less of what someone else is doing. We are all missing some of what is happening when we’re watching video evidence.”

Citing a 2014 paper she previously published with Yael Granot, Balcetis also notes that the personal ways that an individual identifies with a social group (for example, if you feel that policing in the U.S. aligns with your values) can color where you are likely to look while “watching altercation footage that portrays ambiguous use of police force against a civilian.”

“Those who fixated more on a target they identified with exhibited stronger differences in how they judged culpability and punishment than those who looked less,” Balcetis explained. “Thus, identification doesn’t just bias opinions — it biases how people make sense of what they attend to in the first place.”

Balcetis does note that this is something people may not be aware of and that recognizing these behaviors and approach to video can help a viewer more accurately process the information they’re receiving — which that 2014 study found after asking individuals to reframe their attention.

“When we, in fact, asked people to try to allocate their attention equally among all the people when watching a video depicting potential police use of force, we did not change whether in fact they felt a sense of connection or felt supportive of police,” she said. “Instead, we changed what they looked at in the video.”

She said that the result did see “a shift in how they looked at the evidence,” “increased the accuracy of their understanding of the actual case facts” and “removed the polarizing effect of identifying with police on their judgments of the acceptability of officers’ use of force.”

“We did not nudge people into siding with or siding against officers. Instead looking differently and more inclusively at all targets changed their understanding of case facts for the better and removed the polarizing impact of their preexisting attitudes about the people involved,” she said...

DR. EMILY BALCETIS

Just got onto her. Stay tuned...

 

ERRATUM

 

Re-watching NetFlix' "Borgen" tonight. Again timely.

Will Greenland soon be ICE'd?

The Palantir Panopticon?

Interesting PBS News segment. I may buy the book. Not sure yet. I read the Amazon preview. And, read through the reader comments (which were all over the partisan map).

 

"An acclaimed New York Times Magazine writer brings us into the world of the controversial technology firm Palantir and its very colorful and outspoken CEO, Alex Karp, tracing the ascent of Big Data, the rise of surveillance technology, and the shifting global balance of power in the 21st century.

Palantir builds data integration software: its technology ingests vast quantities of information and quickly identifies patterns, trends, and connections that might elude the human eye. Founded in 2003 to help the US government in the war on terrorism—an early investor was the CIA—Palantir is now a $400 billion global colossus whose software is used by major intelligence services (including the Mossad), the US military, dozens of federal agencies, and corporate giants like Airbus and BP. From AI to counterterrorism to climate change to immigration to financial fraud to the future of warfare, the company is at the nexus of the most critical issues of the twenty-first century.

Its CEO, Alex Karp, is a distinctive figure on the global business scene. A biracial Jew who is also severely dyslexic, Karp has built Palantir into a tech giant despite having no background in either business or computer science. Instead, he’s a trained philosopher who has become known for his strongly held views on a range of issues and for his willingness to grapple with the moral and ethical implications of Palantir’s work. Those questions have taken on added urgency during the Trump era, which has also brought attention to the political activism of Karp’s close friend and Palantir cofounder Peter Thiel.

In The Philosopher in the Valley, journalist Michael Steinberger explores the world of Alex Karp, Palantir, and the future that they are leading us toward. It is an urgent and illuminating work about one of Silicon Valley’s most secretive and powerful companies, whose technology is at the leading edge of the surveillance state."

I need to get more fully informed on this Bro'. See this 2020 long-read NY Times piece.

 

Click

Worth your time.

 

Long-time KHIT readers know of my 30+ years of thinking and writing on privacy and its nexus with technology. e.g., see my 1998  grad Thesis.

 

Click

 

After 9/11, use of surveillance tech ramped dramatically up. And now, given today's exponentially proliferating digitech, the authoritarian surveillance Panopticon is now here to a degree we cannot fully comprehend.

Anyone recall "Total Information Awareness?" Let me re-post last year's re-post observations I'd written on that topic.

____________________

 

The Homeland Security Act and the proposed 2002 DARPA"Total Information Awareness" (TIA) program, a 2025 retrospective in the wake of the current NOLA and Vegas terror attacks.

 

I originally posted this essay (now littered with 22 yr old link rot) in response to proposed post-911 government national security / surveillance measures. 

 

In the wake of the 2025 domestic terror attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas, and with the ever-opportunistic Donald Trump about to re-take the Presidency, I thought it possibly worthy of some reprise reflection. What follows will be some relevant cut & paste material from the original.

__________

"Total Information Awareness" (TIA)

Under the guise of combating terrorism, our federal government proposes to assemble -- absent probable cause and/or search warrants --  comprehensive investigative data dossiers on ALL American citizens as well as foreigners in the U.S.

From William Safire's recent NY Times editorial (11/14/2002)

"...Every purchase you make with a credit card, every magazine subscription you buy and medical prescription you fill, every Web site you visit and e-mail you send or receive, every academic grade you receive, every bank deposit you make, every trip you book and every event you attend -- all these transactions and communications will go into what the Defense Department describes as "a virtual, centralized grand database." 

To this computerized dossier on your private life from commercial sources, add every piece of information that government has about you -- passport application, driver's license and bridge toll records, judicial and divorce records, complaints from nosy neighbors to the FBI, your lifetime paper trail plus the latest hidden camera surveillance -- and you have the supersnoop's dream: a "Total Information Awareness" about every U.S. citizen. 

This is not some far-out Orwellian scenario. It is what will happen to your personal freedom in the next few weeks if John Poindexter gets the unprecedented power he seeks...."

The lead agency driving this effort is DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, specifically within the DARPA Information Awareness Office (IAO) under the direction of former Admiral Dr. John Poindexter. DARPA/IAO has already published "RFPs" (Requests For Proposals) and is awarding contracts. DARPA/IAO is unabashed regarding its aims...

[ 12/24/02 UPDATE: DARPA/OIA is apparently feeling the heat. The above graphic, which I copied from their website when I first assembled this page, has been toned down on the TIA website, with, among other changes, removal of the phrase "keeping track of individuals." They've also removed the Orwellian "scientia est potentia" logo ("knowledge is power") and bios of TIA principals like Poindexter. Interesting. ]

"Keeping track of individuals" without constitutional justification is something we expect of totalitarian regimes. I fear we are losing track of just what it is we are ostensibly trying to defend and preserve.

 

The explicit OIA goal is to place all recorded private and public personal transactions and histories within ongoing computerized reach of investigative authorities for more effective suppression of terrorist acts. 

 

The recently passed Homeland Security Act of 2002 (H.R. 5710, hereinafter referred to as HSA) under TITLE II—INFORMATION ANALYSIS AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION, mandates exactly this sort of initiative, as it directs the government to centrally

"...access, receive, and analyze law enforcement information, intelligence information, and other information from agencies of the Federal Government, State and local government agencies (including law enforcement agencies), and private sector entities (emphasis mine), and to integrate such information..."

 

"...To integrate relevant information, analyses, and vulnerability assessments (whether such information, analyses, or assessments are provided or produced by the Department or others) in order to identify priorities for protective and support measures by the Department, other agencies of the Federal Government, State and local government agencies and authorities, the private sector, and other entities..." (pages 23 and 24)

Congressman Dick Armey, while stating his strong opposition to the TIA proposal, denies that the HSA authorizes it. As quoted in an MSNBC article:

"...“This bill does not in any way authorize the Department of Defense program known as ‘Total Information Awareness,’ ” Armey said. “It does not authorize, fund or move into the department anything like it. In fact, this bill provides unique statutory protections that will ensure the Department of Homeland Security could never undertake such a program.” Armey also noted that “references in the bill to data-mining are intended solely to authorize the use of advanced techniques to sift through existing intelligence data, not to open a new method of intruding into lawful, everyday transactions of American citizens.

Well, the relevant sections of the HSA do not make that clear, Mr. Armey, in fact they seem to contradict the assertion. The HSA speaks of integrating data from sources going well beyond "intelligence data" (see above, or better yet, read the Act. A link is provided below.) Moreover, we can be sure that DARPA/OIA will seek to be included in funding allocated under HSA for their little unconstitutional project. The devil will surely be in the details, and the operational details will consist of the endless HSA amendments, appropriations bills, and detailed CFRs (Code of Federal Regulations specs eventually issued for HSA). What is clear at this point is that any logical current reading of HSA tells us that the TIA program falls within the Homeland Security mandate. Confirmation of this last point is seen in remarks made by Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Edward C. "Pete" Aldridge during a November 20th DoD news briefing: 

Q: How is this not domestic spying? I don't understand this. You have these vast databases that you're looking for patterns in. Ordinary Americans, who aren't of Middle East origin, are just typical, ordinary Americans, their transactions are going to be perused.

Aldridge: Okay, first of all --

Q: And do you require search warrants? I mean, how does this work?

Aldridge: First of all, we are developing the technology of a system that could be used by the law enforcement officials, if they choose to do so. It is a technology that we're developing. We are not using this for this purpose. It is technology.

Once that technology is transported over to the law enforcement agency, they will use the same process they do today; they protect the individual's identity. We'll have to operate under the same legal conditions as we do today that protects individuals' privacy when this is operated by the law enforcement agency.

Q: So they would need a search warrant, then?

Aldridge: They would have to go through whatever legal proceedings they would go through today to protect the individuals' rights, yes.

Q: As part of this feasibility study, will anybody be looking at legislation, regulation, executive orders that may need to be modified?

Aldridge: I think that's probably an issue that's going to be taken up by the new office of homeland security, who probably will be very much involved in this type -- the use of this type of information.

The link between DARPA's "Total Information Awareness" proposal and the Homeland Security Department (in addition to regular U.S. civilian law enforcement) seems rather clear from those remarks. And, one must ask just how such agencies will "go through whatever legal proceedings they would go through today to protect the individuals' rights" after the TIA data horse is already out of the barn?

No one can question the worthiness of the fight against terrorism. However, the means as envisioned by OIA raise troubling Constitutional and operational questions. Aggregating private personal information for the (sole?) purpose of conducting widespread criminal investigations without probable cause and warrants seems to directly violate the 4th Amendment. Recall from the Bill of Rights: "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized." (Amendment IV) It is beyond any dispute, for example, that American authorities may not surreptitiously enter your houses without cause (validated by a warrant), rifle through your belongings, photocopy your papers, extract the data from your personal computers, intercept your emails, and remove this information for criminal investigatory scrutiny. How the proposed TIA program differs materially escapes me. Worse, this is a Defense Department entity proposing to undertake what would be unconstitutional for domestic civilian law enforcement.

Constitutional questions aside, we ought seriously question the likely operational utility of such an undertaking...  hypothetical relative effectiveness scenarios of a TIA "terrorism detection database" under varied input assumptions -- its noxious constitutional implications aside. I have entered the following default values: [A] a population of 240,000,000 (~215,000,000 Americans 18+ yrs of age, plus ~25,000,000 foreigners),  [B] 5,000 actual terrorists lurking among them, and [C] & [D] extremely generous (and highly unlikely) 99.9% "accuracy rates" pertaining to "true positives" (terrorists) and "true negatives" (innocent citizens). In such a scenario, counterintuitive though it may be (given a putative "99.9% accuracy rate"), the likelihood of identifying an actual terrorist is -- at best -- approximately 2% (the proportion of true positives in the test-positive subset of the initial population), and this small group will still have to be separated from the nearly quarter million "false positives"  -- i.e., innocent people wrongly identified as terror suspects by a TIA model.

While the relative "accuracy" (sensitivity & specificity) levels of many clinical methods that estimate disease probabilities (or any type of  experimental assay with anterior empirical underpinnings using Bayesian statistical methods [see below] ) are tolerably well-defined (and uniformly well below 99.9%), those pertaining to a TIA program are wholly speculative at this point, and will not clarify for years (if ever). One daunting limitation will come in the form of pervasively inaccurate and/or incomplete data pouring in from the myriad public and private sources. Another will owe to the relative recency and transience of the phenomenon. As Robert Levy of the Cato Institute observes: "Never mind that Pentagon computer scientists believe that terrorists could easily avoid detection, leaving bureaucrats with about 200 million dossiers on totally innocent Americans — instant access to e-mail, web surfing, and phone records, credit-card and banking transactions, prescription-drug purchases, travel data, and court records." (see www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-levy112602.asp) I could not agree more. While the innocent will more or less simply go on with their customary daily life transactions, our terrorist enemies will undoubtedly take evasive measures. What shall we do? Outlaw, among other things, all anonymous cash transactions? If we don't (and we cannot) the very utility of a TIA database will be fatally compromised at the outset.

Given that no test is infallible, there are inescapable trade-offs in terms of relative false-positive/false negative levels associated with any assessment. For example, where routine workplace drug tests are concerned, labs seek to limit false positives (and the lawsuits they spawn), while they are far less troubled by false negatives (recreational drug users who slip through the screenings). With respect to terrorism, on the other hand, authorities will necessarily fret principally over false negatives -- actual terrorists who go undetected. Should you wrongly end up on a Homeland Security "No-Fly List" or be uselessly visited by a couple of FBI agents in the wake of a false positive TIA "hit", you will likely be met with bureaucratic indifference at best should you protest. At worst, you could be wrongly arrested, have your assets seized, lose your job, or otherwise have your reputation ruined.

We only have 11,400 FBI Special Agents, many of whom are accountants and lawyers working white-collar crime. Do we really want to send criminal investigators en masse off surveilling and interviewing the overwhelmingly innocent errantly identified in a TIA computerized fishing expedition? Moreover, given that the proportion of actual terrorists in the general population cannot but be vanishingly low, minor decrements in the Specificity rate will cause huge increases in false positives -- all of whom will have to be investigated. Change the 99.9% Specificity to 99.0% and see what happens.

 

First fiscal year funding for this program is set forth in the HSA at $500,000,000. It is at once unconstitutional and another likely significant waste of public funds, one that may well have little positive impact on the war against terrorism.

 

While HSA contains privacy and data security language restricting the use of TIA-type data to (ill-defined) Homeland Security purposes, we will likely see relentless pressure by law enforcement for access to the information, on the grounds that more effective overall law enforcement via access to TIA data will free up police resources for Homeland Security duties. One need not read far into the HSA to see blurring of enforcement lines. For example, the new Department is directed to

 

"...monitor connections between illegal drug trafficking and terrorism, coordinate efforts to sever such connections, and otherwise contribute to efforts to interdict illegal drug trafficking." [TITLE I, Section 101(b)(1)(G), page 14]

 

Given the federal government's simplistic yet relentless media campaign of the past year arguing that "Drug Use Aids Terrorists," well, you get the point (or should).

 

More generally, under TITLE I, Section 101(b)2), RESPONSIBILITY FOR INVESTIGATING AND PROSECUTING TERRORISM:

 

"Except as specifically provided by law with respect to entities transferred to the Department under this Act, primary responsibility for investigating and prosecuting acts of terrorism shall be vested not in the Department, but rather in Federal, State, and local law enforcement agencies with jurisdiction over the acts in question." (pp 14-15)

 

Well, Federal, State, and local law enforcement agencies may well -- perhaps quietly -- argue that they cannot perform their duties pursuant to HSA without access to the integrated, panoptic TIA data repositories. Conveniently, HSA is replete with broad language granting this or that Director or Assistant Secretary discretion over what constitute "reasonable" administrative measures under the Act.

 

It gets worse. HSA is also peppered with language mandating two-way coordination of activities, communications, and data-sharing with "the private sector." HSA officials are charged with "...creating and fostering strategic communications with the private sector to enhance the primary mission of the Department to protect the American homeland" (page 17), "...creating and managing private sector advisory councils composed of representatives of industries and associations designated by the Secretary" (page 18), "...promoting existing public-private partnerships and developing new public-private partnerships to provide for collaboration and mutual support to address homeland security challenges" (pp 18-19), and so forth.

 

In addition to the warrantless law enforcement implications of HSA's envisioned data repositories, we must also recognize that a TIA database will also constitute a commercial data-miner's wet dream of scope heretofore unimagined. Vigilance with respect to HSA collaborative "public-private partnerships" had better be tireless.

__________

What is(are) "Bayesian Statistics"?

 

 

Bayesian methods are used to refine a posterior probability estimate by using anterior probability knowledge. The table above is familiar to anyone who works in health care or epidemiological analysis. For example, we know both the approximate prevalence of a clinical condition (the proportion of people in the population with the condition) and the historical false positive and false negative rates of a relevant lab test. Using Bayes formula (below), we can better estimate the likelihood you in fact have a disease given that your test comes back positive, or the probability that you are actually disease-free given a negative lab test.

 

 

Relax, it's only algebra.

Let p(t|+) = the probability of being a true positive ("t", e.g., for this discussion, a terrorist) given a positive TIA finding (+);

Let p(+|t) = the probability of testing positive (+) given that you are in fact a "t";

Let p(t) = the "prevalence" of true positives, e.g., the proportion of terrorists lurking in the aggregate population;

Let p(+|f) = the TIA probability of testing positive (+) given that you are in fact NOT a "t" (i.e., the false positive rate);

Let p(f) = 1 - p(t), the proportion of innocent ("non-terrorists") people in the population.

Look at the factor p(+|f)p(f) in the right-hand side of the denominator (lower right above). Given that the proportion of population true negatives (non-terrorists in this discussion) is indisputably extremely high, p(t|+), the likelihood of a TIA  assessment yielding true positives will necessarily be intractably low, given the relative magnitude of p(+|f)p(f) (unless we have perfect concurrent 100% Sensitivity and Specificity, which, in the real world, will not be the case). Moreover, p(+|f) is not wholly independent of p(f), in that the more true negatives in the population, the more chances you have to err. Similarly, the fewer true positives in the population, the fewer chances you have to get it right.

This is why we don't test everybody for every disease. This is why we don't test every square foot of the nation in search of pollution.

This is why we have Probable Cause and Warrants codified in the Constitution -- principles apparently lost on the likes of a John Poindexter or a John Ashcroft. In Bayesian terms, "probable cause" serves to ensure that the "prevalence" of guilty individuals in a criminal proceeding is minimally greater than 50%, making us much less likely to wrongly convict someone of a crime (or brand someone as a "terror suspect" behind his or her back after fishing through personal data without constitutional -- rational -- justification).

 

Think about it...just how much more likely you'd be to be falsely accused or convicted than you might think were it not for the probable cause brake on authority.

__________

 

Counter-argument

Those who advocate measures such as this can point out that, given my assumptions (5,000 terrorists lurking amid 240,000,000 adults here), were we to randomly sample people for investigation, the raw probability of collaring a terrorist would be 5,000/240,000,000, or roughly 0.00002083. A TIA model operating at 99.9% "accuracy", consequently, would up the odds of catching a terrorist roughly 1,000-fold. What are we to do? Not avail ourselves of state-of-the-art computer modeling tools in the service of Homeland Security?

While the foregoing math is indeed true, I have two questions in reaction:

1. What will be the consequences of being wrongly identified (a false positive)? If, for example,  you are a false positive for banned objects (e.g., weapons) at the x-ray equipment and/or metal detector at the airport, the error is quickly confirmed and you are on your way. Your identity is not recorded and added to a database. Anyone who has ever falsely tested positive for illicit drug use or has been wrongly arrested, however, can give you a bit of insight into the persistent ugliness that can in fact follow errors by those in authority (See "FBI’s post-9/11 watch list spreads far, mutates" below).

2. What if a TIA model only achieves modest (though still technically "significant") "accuracy" and "precision" levels? For example, simply decrement the Sensitivity and Specificity levels in my scenario to 99.0? You then have nearly 2.4 million false positives to weed out. At 95% "accuracy" you would have 12,000,000 people to subsequently surveil and/or interrogate. It quickly becomes logistically untenable. Again, you're stuck with the low-prevalence problem, which trumps any level of "true positive" accuracy.

This is methodologically akin to the mendacious idiocy of requiring Granny and Grandpa the Wal-Mart Greeters to submit to employment drug tests. Statisticians understand this problematic statistical search for the rare (and unevenly distributed) event or object.

So too -- implicitly -- did the framers of our Constitution. Congress  -- and/or the courts -- should strike down this Orwellian undertaking.

__________

 

Update, November 25th, 2002

 

Only the guilty need worry, right? If you've nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear from the TIA/HSA and proposed "public-private" information partnerships. Well, you might consider the following, which appeared in my Sunday paper yesterday:

FBI’s post-9 /11 watch list spreads far, mutates

BY ANN DAVIS, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

 

LAS VEGAS — When a patron at the New York-New York casino plugged his frequent player card into a slot machine one day this summer, something strange happened: An alert warned the casino’s surveillance officials that an associate of a suspected terrorist might be on the grounds. 

 

How did a casino’s computer make such a connection? Shortly after Sept. 11, 2001, the FBI had entrusted a quickly developed watch list to scores of corporations around the country. 

 

Departing from its usual practice of closely guarding such lists, the FBI circulated the names of hundreds of people it wanted to question. Counterterrorism officials gave the list to car-rental companies. Then FBI field agents and other officials circulated it to big banks, travel-reservation systems, firms that collect consumer data, as well as casino operators like MGM Mirage, the owner of New York-New York. Other recipients included businesses thought vulnerable to terrorist intrusion, including truckers, chemical companies and power-plant operators. It was the largest intelligence-sharing experiment the bureau has ever undertaken with the private sector.

 

A year later, the list has taken on a life of its own, multiplying — and error-filled — versions being passed around like bootleg music. Some companies fed a version of the list into their own databases and now use it to screen job applicants and customers. A water-utilities trade association used the list "in lieu of" standard background checks, says the New Jersey group’s executive director. 

 

The list included many people the FBI didn’t suspect but just wanted to talk to. Yet a version on SeguRed. com, a South American security-oriented Web site that got a copy from a Venezuelan bank’s security officer, is headed: "list of suspected terrorists sent by the FBI to financial institutions." 

 

Meanwhile, a supermarket trade group used a version of the list to try to check whether terrorists were raising funds through known shoplifting rings. The trade group won’t disclose results.

The FBI credits the effort, dubbed Project Lookout, with helping it rapidly find some people with relevant information in the crisis atmosphere right after the terror attacks. MGM Mirage says it has tipped off the FBI at least six times since beginning to track hotel and casino guests against the list. 

 

The FBI and other investigative agencies — which were criticized after Sept. 11, 2001, for not sharing their information enough — are exploring new ways to do so, including mining corporate data to find suspects or spot suspicious activity. The Pentagon is developing technology it can use to sweep up personal data from commercial transactions around the world. "Information sharing" has become a buzzword. 

 

But one significant step in this direction, Project Lookout, is in many ways a study in how not to share intelligence. 

 

The watch list shared with companies — one part of the FBI’s massive counterterrorism database — quickly became obsolete as the bureau worked its way through the names. The FBI’s counterterrorism division quietly stopped updating the list more than a year ago. But it never informed most of the companies that had received a copy. FBI headquarters doesn’t know who is still using the list because officials never kept track of who got it. "We have now lost control of that list," says Art Cummings, head of the strategic analysis and warning section of the FBI’s counterterrorism division. "We shouldn’t have had those problems." 

 

The bureau tried to cut off distribution after less than six weeks, partly from worry that suspects could too easily find out they had been tagged. Another concern has been misidentification, especially as multipart Middle Eastern names are degraded by typos when faxed and are fed into new databases. 

 

Then there’s the problem of getting off the list. At first the FBI frequently removed names of people it had cleared. But issuing updated lists, which the FBI once did as often as four times a day, didn’t fix the older ones already in circulation. Three brothers in Texas named Atta — long since exonerated, and no relation to the suspected lead hijacker — are still trying to chase their names off copies of the list posted on Internet sites in at least five countries. 

 

People who’ve asked the FBI for help getting off the bootleg lists say they’ve been told the bureau can’t do anything to correct outdated lists still floating around. The FBI’s Cummings says that "the most we can control is our official dissemination of that list." Once it left the lawenforcement community, "we have no jurisdiction to say, ‘If you disseminate this further, we will prosecute you. ’" 

 

CIVIL LIBERTARIANS WORRY 

 

Despite the problems, Cummings and other proponents of information-sharing say the process should be improved, not abandoned. Software companies are rushing to help, trying to make information-sharing easier and more effective. 

 

Systems Research & Development in Las Vegas is among those working on ways to make exchanging law-enforcement and corporate information a two-way street without compromising privacy. "I believe there’s probably 10 to 50 companies in America that across them touch 80 percent to 90 percent of the entire country," says Jeff Jonas, Systems Research & Development founder, citing credit-card companies, banks, airlines, hotel chains and rental-car companies. "There should be a protocol in place that corporate America could be plugged into that allows them to say, ‘ We’d like to help, ’" he says. 

 

But some officials at the U.S. Customs Service, the Office of Homeland Security and the FBI’s own Criminal Justice Information Services Division doubt the wisdom of circulating watch lists widely, and some say they didn’t even know about Project Lookout. 

 

Civil libertarians worry about enlisting companies to track innocent people for the government. Many companies say they need to be insulated from liability if they’re expected to share data on people with the government. "It’s a tough, tough box to get into. You end up with legitimate concerns about moving into Orwell’s 1984," says Henry Nocella, an official of Professional Security Bureau Ltd. in Nutley, N. J., and a former security director at Bestfoods. "Yet you know there’s a need to collect and analyze information." 

 

‘NOT PLAYING GAMES’ 

 

Before Sept. 11, 2001, the government rarely revealed the names of terrorism suspects to companies. The exception was when it had a subpoena for specific information the government believed a company had about a person under investigation. But after the attacks, counterterrorism officials were concerned that members of terrorist cells could have slipped undetected into companies or communities. They feared that by the time they figured out where to direct subpoenas, the suspects could get away or even stage another attack. Holed up in a "strategic information and operations center" in Washington, a small circle of FBI officials decided on Sept. 15, 2001, to put out a broad heads-up to state and local police and to trusted companies. "We’re not playing games here. This was real life. We wanted as many people as possible to know this is who we wanted to talk to," says Steven Berry, an FBI spokesman.

Agents cast a wide net that, by its nature, included scores of innocent people. 

 

They started by using record searches and interviews to identify "anybody who had contact" with the 19 hijackers, Cummings recalls. 

 

Kevin Giblin, chief of the terrorist warning unit, decided that car-rental companies and local police should be the first outside of the airlines to get the list. One firm that received it, Ford Motor Co. ’s Hertz unit, says it checked the list against its records and told the FBI of any matches, but then basically let the list lie dormant. Trade groups proved a quick way to spread the word. The FBI gave the list to the Transportation Department. It shared the names with the American Trucking Associations, which promptly e-mailed the list to nearly 3,000 trucking companies. The International Security Management Association, an elite group of executives at 350 companies, put the list on a password-protected part of its Web site, allowing members to scan it in private, members say. 

 

‘ WASN’T A BLACKLIST ’ 

 

On their own, FBI field agents shared the list with some chemical, drug, security-guard, gambling and power-plant companies, according to interviews with companies. The FBI’s Giblin says he hadn’t realized how extensively field agents distributed the list. But he says agents have considerable autonomy and are expected to keep close ties to companies in their area. Giblin says the bureau stressed to recipients that the people named weren’t all suspects. "This wasn’t a blacklist," he says. By the time the FBI tried to close out its list, at least 50 versions were floating around, say people who saw numbered ones. Some companies were asking software firms such as Systems Research & Development how to make better use of the lists. The company, which is financed in part by a venture capital arm of the Central Intelligence Agency, has a program called NORA, for Non-Obvious Relationship Awareness. It mines data to detect hard-to-see links between people, such as use of the same residence or phone number.

Giblin says when he fields tips nowadays from companies that have the watch list, he tells them it’s obsolete. But not all field offices turn down such tips. 

 

If the government does decide to disseminate watch lists in the future, it won’t face high legal hurdles, says Daniel Ortiz, a law professor at the University of Virginia. He says someone who appears wrongly on a watch list could ask for a correction but couldn’t prevent the list’s circulation or sue the government for damages under current privacy laws. The government just has to be careful not to single people out solely on race or ethnicity. 

 

Businesses face more jeopardy, however. Many industries, such as cable companies and banks, operate under special privacy laws preventing them from giving customer information to the government without a subpoena.
___

Recall the huge flap in Florida during the 2000 Presidential election, wherein a "public/private" data partnership wrongfully excluded thousands of voters as "ineligible ex-felons"? See Florida's flawed "voter-cleansing" program. 

Opportunities for political mischief through access to TIA data will, if history is any guide, be legion.

___

About the author

I have been working with analytical data for the past 16 years, in four disparate domains: [1] forensic-level environmental radiation and mixed waste analysis, [2] industrial “Predictive Maintenance” (PDM) diagnostics, [3] Nevada Medicare hospitalization outcomes investigations, and, (for the past nearly three year to date) [4] credit risk management in a subprime demographic (people who perhaps shouldn’t be even be granted credit). My training and experience with both the theory and practicalities of data logistics and assessment are at once broad and deep.

 My tenure in radioassay was one in which you frequently had to justify every for-the-record digit to the satisfaction of a seemingly endless horde of auditors (many of whom served the potentially legally liable parties eager to discredit your work). Put down “2.7 pCi/kg.” on a report and you could expect to be called upon to demonstrate that your records scientifically verified your bench-level operational ability to distinguish between “2.6” and “2.8”. “Significant figures” rounding was a routine contractual stipulation, one subject to ongoing verification.

 During my PDM tenure, it quickly became obvious that, were one of our digital FFT monitor-analyzers to prove inaccurate and permit, say, a power plant turbine bearing or shaft to fail without warning, huge sums might be lost, and people might die (and we might be subsequently sued out of existence). Our engineers and programmers, consequently, personified the term “fastidious.”

 Next: Nevada Medicare, and a rude empirical awakening. The U.S. Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) quietly internally acknowledged that the hospitalization data we had to work with at the Nevada Peer Review was perhaps only “~80% accurate.” Medical charts were shot through with inaccuracies and omissions owing to realities such as the vagaries of administrative ICD-9 and DRG coding and the chronic inscrutability of clerical and/or physicians’ penmanship. A staple of designing Peer Review statistical evaluation projects was compensatory “20-25% oversample” for chart abstraction and review.

 Now I work in revolving credit risk assessment (a privately-held issuer of VISA and MasterCard accounts), where our department has the endless and difficult task of trying to statistically separate the “goods” from the “bads” using data mining technology and modeling methods such as factor analysis, cluster analysis, general linear and logistic regression, CART analysis (Classification and Regression Tree) and related techniques.

Curiously, our youngest cardholder is 3.7 years of age (notwithstanding that the minimum contractual age is 18), the oldest 147. We have customers ostensibly earning $100,000 per month—odd, given that the median monthly (unverified self-reported) income is approximately $1,700 in our active portfolio.

 Yeah. Mistakes. We spend a ton of time trying to clean up such exasperating and seemingly intractable errors. Beyond that, for example, we undertake a new in-house credit score modeling study and immediately find that roughly 4% of the account IDs we send to the credit bureau cannot be merged with their data (via Social Security numbers or name/address/phone links).

 I guess we’re supposed to be comfortable with the remaining data because they matched up -- and for the most part look plausible. Notwithstanding that nearly everyone has their pet stories about credit bureau errors that gave them heartburn or worse.

12/26/02 UPDATE: see www.consumerfed.org/121702_creditscorereport.html for the latest on the persistent extent, and the actual and potential negative impacts of credit bureau inaccuracies.

In addition to credit risk modeling, an ongoing portion of my work involves cardholder transaction analysis and fraud detection. Here again the data quality problems are legion, often going beyond the usual keystroke data processing errors that plague all businesses. Individual point-of-sale events are sometimes posted multiple times, given the holes in the various external and internal data processing systems that fail to block exact dupes. Additionally, all customer purchase and cash advance transactions are tagged by the merchant processing vendor with a 4-digit “SIC code” (Standard Industrial Classification) categorizing the type of sale. These are routinely and persistently miscoded, often laughably. A car rental event might come back to us with a SIC code for “3532- Mining Machinery and Equipment”; booze purchases at state-run liquor stores are sometimes tagged “9311- Taxation and Monetary Policy”; a mundane convenience store purchase in the U.K. is seen as “9711- National Security”, and so forth.

 

Interestingly, we recently underwent training regarding our responsibilities pursuant to the Treasury Department’s FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) SAR program (Suspicious Activity Reports). The trainer made repeated soothing references to our blanket indemnification under this system, noting approvingly that we are not even required to substantiate a “good faith effort” in filing a SAR. In other words, we could file egregiously incorrect information that could cause an innocent customer a lot of grief, and we can’t be sued.

 He accepted uncritically that this was a necessary and good idea.

You just watch. The Homeland Security Act and its eventual amendments and CFRs, along with those pertaining to TIA will also certainly contain such blanket liability immunity provisions.

 We know why.

Robert E. Gladd,  MA/EPS, CQE

Las Vegas, NV

UPDATES

 

In the wake of my original 2002 TIA essay I sent a snailmail response letter to the DARPA/TIA Director Admiral Poindexter.

 

Also: Six years after first posting the foregoing material, I expanded on the broader riff.

NOTE: All of the foregoing was informed in large measure by material aspects of the extensive work comprising my 1998 graduate thesis (pdf).

 

JOYCE VANCE WHITE

SUBSTACK POST

 

I've previously cited Danielle Citron.

ERRATUM

Yeah.