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Monday, May 6, 2019

“We are eroding the very foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide”

- atmospheric chemist and IPBES chair Robert Watson

Read the report. We are running out of time. Prior related topical posts here.


New book coming out soon.

Read The Atlantic article adapted from it, "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts." Very important stuff.
...[T]he track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special grasp of what is to come...
Among others, I am reminded of those who call themselves "futurists." They even have their own Professional Association.
People like "Nobody knows more about ________ than me" Donald Trump never pass up an opportunity to assert that experts are always wrong about everything. Consequently, we must do our best to get substantive things right, notwithstanding that the possibility of error is always with all of us.
I ask again; is there a "science of deliberation?" We certainly need it.

More to come...

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